Here are the new population figures for each municipality in Normandy, Brittany and the Pays de la Loire, calculated by INSEE (National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies). These figures, called legal populations, come into force on January 1, 2020, but identify the inhabitants on January 1, 2017.
For INSEE, there were 66,524,339 inhabitants in France on January 1, 2017, compared to 65,241,241 inhabitants on January 1, 2012. This represents an average annual change of + 0.4%, and 1,263,162 more people.
In the West, new
To assess the number of inhabitants living in France on January 1, 2020, INSEE makes an estimate covering the national territory. Clearly, we are not close to three inhabitants. However, to determine the population of each municipality, it is otherwise important because this figure serves as a reference for many administrative acts.
Here is the map of the population of municipalities on January 1, 2017, compared to the population on January 1, 2012:
This 2020 edition broadly corresponds to the trends observed in previous years. The metropolises and their periphery attract new inhabitants, in particular around Nantes and Rennes. Rural regions, such as Center-Bretagne, Perche and Cotentin, continue to see their populations decline.
The most negative average annual change is for Le Ménil-Vicomte (Orne), with – 8.8%. The municipality increased from 38 to 24 inhabitants between 2012 and 2017.
Conversely, Moisville (Eure) has an average annual increase of + 7.6%, increasing over the 2012-2017 period from 165 to 238 inhabitants.
In absolute number of inhabitants, Nantes (+ 17,742) and Rennes (+6,955) obviously dominate the ranking, ahead of Angers (+3,943), Saint-Herblain (+2,981) and Les Sables-d ‘ Olonne (+2 279). Of the 10 cities with the highest growth, 7 are in Loire-Atlantique!
In contrast, three Norman cities have experienced the largest declines in the number of inhabitants: Caen (-3,011), Le Havre (-2,995) and Cherbourg-en-Cotentin (-1,903)
Here are the details of the data for the municipalities of Brittany, Normandy and Pays de la Loire:
Diverse dynamics
In the West, the three regions have different dynamics. The Pays de la Loire gained 124,986 inhabitants from 2012 to 2017, when Brittany gained 81,807 and Normandy only 7,722.
Within regions, at the departmental level, the trends are also variable. If all the Breton departments gain inhabitants, in Normandy and in Pays de la Loire, there are strong differences.
Thus, Loire-Atlantique gained 81,436 inhabitants over the period, when Mayenne lost 8 and Sarthe 876. Maine-et-Loire and Vendée experienced increases of 18,088 and 26,346 respectively.
How is counting done?
In the past, all inhabitants were counted in the same year. This general census was rare: the last one dates back to 1999. Now INSEE uses a rotating survey. Each year, one fifth of the municipalities with less than 10,000 inhabitants are listed.
Also every year, all dwellings in cities with more than 10,000 inhabitants are recounted and 8% receive a physical visit from a census representative, which makes it possible to refine the average number of occupants per dwelling.
Why January 1, 2017?
The data available this year were collected between 2015 and 2019. In the name of a principle of equity, they are recalculated by reference to the same date, as if all the municipalities had been listed on the same day.
INSEE speaks of extrapolation or “back projection”. The figures that we publish today are stopped on the “median date” of January 1, 2017. They take legal value on January 1, 2020. Next year, the figures will be stopped on the median date of January 1, 2018… And so right now.
Municipal or total population?
This is a common source of error for the amateur demographers that we are. The municipal population adds up people having their usual residence in the commune (SDF and prisoners included). But there are people who keep ties in one commune while usually living in another. Example: students. These, INSEE “counts them apart”.
Thus, a young Laval resident who is studying in Caen is part of the Caen municipal population but remains “counted apart” in his hometown. The total population of a city is the sum of the municipal population and the separate population.
Why is it so important?
Each year, the mayors watch with concern for the new delivery from INSEE. Many administrative or financial decisions depend on these figures: state funding for municipalities, scales of certain taxes, number of municipal councilors, conditions for setting up pharmacies, etc.
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