What the dictators said
Lukashenka
The leader of the Belarusian regime began his welcoming speech by saying that the decisions on closer integration between Russia and Belarus “demonstrate to the whole world that only together can we overcome any pandemic, crisis or sanctions”.
According to him, the main priority of the meeting is the resolution of economic issues, as well as the discussion of defense and security issues. Furthermore, Lukashenka expressed the hope that Europe will “listen to the voice of reason”.
“Russia and Belarus, as Vladimir Vladimirovich and I often say, are open to dialogue with other states, including European ones. I hope that soon they will listen to the voice of reason and we will move on to a constructive discussion on both issues of common security and future world order,” he added.
Put in
The Russian president announced that he is expecting a new record in trade revenue, which is expected to reach $40 billion. He also underlined that Belarus is an ally in every sense.
Furthermore, Putin stressed that:
- Pleased with the way relations with Belarus are being built
- ready to further develop nuclear projects in Belarus
- there are plans for cooperation in space
Final statements
What did Putin say
According to Putin, key issues in the field of economy, security and defense were considered today, taking into account “the situation in the world and in the region”. He stressed that Russia and Belarus are united by a common history, therefore they are building a union state.
It also notes that all the main parameters of the energy sector, including sensitive ones, have been agreed. The sides will continue the practice of joint military exercises and also agreed to develop new military equipment.
Separately, Putin drew attention to the fact that:
- countries have implemented about 600 integration measures out of 1,000
- next year, a Belarusian cosmonaut will be sent to the orbital station
- Russia trains crews of Belarusian aircraft converted for the possible use of missiles with nuclear warheads
Furthermore, the Russian president has denied plans to absorb Belarus.
What did Lukashenka say
Alexander Lukashenko stressed that the parties were able to withstand the current conditions and “find opportunities for the growth of their economies”. And this despite the fact that the Russian economy at the end of the year sharply declined. Traditionally, he has blamed the West for all the problems:
- “It is important that the boomerang of the sanctions policy hits its perpetrators”
- Questions about market unification with Russia will be removed in the near future
- Belarus and Russia will not create parallel production facilities, but will develop cooperation in industry
- Belarus has put into service the S-400 and Iskander complexes transferred from Russia
- The West wanted to deprive Belarus of independence and sovereignty, and Putin in 2020 “extended a hand”
Defense ministers meeting
At the moment it is known that the defense ministers of Russia and Belarus, Sergei Shoigu, have already met. According to the Belarusian ministry, issues of military-technical cooperation and strengthening the defense capability of the two states were discussed.
The defense ministers of Belarus and Russia discussed some issues related to military-technical cooperation and strengthening the defense capability of the two states
— Valery Revenko (@Revenka_Valery) December 19, 2022
Why did Putin come to Lukashenka? Lateral versions
Belarus
Belarusian side announced Putin’s visit and negotiations at the highest level “on the whole spectrum of the most pressing issues of bilateral integration”. In addition to the leaders, members of the governments of Russia and Belarus, heads of ministries and departments participate in the meetings.
It was planned that Putin and Lukashenko would discuss in detail the implementation of previously adopted union programs. Including trade and economic cooperation issues, joint projects with a focus on import substitution. Also, Minsk hoped to get concessions in the energy sector.
Speaking about the visit to Belarus, the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov said that no one is forcing her to integrate. In his opinion, both sides “take measures that are in their own interests”.
He also noted that presidents will talk about gas and military issues and commented to Russian media how to deal with information that Putin will persuade Lukashenka to go to war with Ukraine.
“To treat this as absolutely stupid and unfounded thoughts. Belarus is the number one ally and partner of the Russian Federation. It is with Belarus that we have the most advanced integration regime, so no one is forcing anyone, everyone is taking the steps that better suit: a) it interests our peoples, b) the interests of our union state,” Peskov said.
Ukraine
The commander of the joint forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Sergei Naev is sure of this in Minsk the involvement of Belarus and the deployment of a ground operation are under discussion.
“In our opinion, during this meeting, the issues of further aggression against Ukraine and the wider involvement of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus in the operation against Ukraine will be resolved, in particular, in our opinion, to the ground,” he said.
According to adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak, Putin will ask Lukashenka to fulfill allied agreements. And I had to go to Minsk myself for this, because Putin’s status has dropped so much that he himself needs to travel and persuade partners. At the same time, Podolyak doubts the possibility of a second offensive from the territory of Belarus.
It should be noted that military experts interviewed by RBC-Ukraine also agree that the involvement of Belarusian troops is one of the goals of the visit. More details – in the material “The Russian Plan. When and How Can a Major Attack on Ukraine Be Initiated”.
Western analysts
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes today’s meeting is part of an effort to create an information environment for a new phase of the war against Ukraine. At the same time, the Russian army, reinforced by Belarusian units, is also unable to conduct large-scale offensive operations in the coming months.
Although analysts do not exclude that, despite all the problems, Putin may try to resume the offensive by the end of winter. But in this case, counting on Lukashenka’s help is hardly worth it.
As previously agreed
It should be noted that this year Lukashenko has met Putin many times, since the beginning of 2022 he has visited Russia 7 times: February 18, March 11, April 12, May 16, May 23, June 25 and September 26.
His visit to Sochi came at the end of the ninth month of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Lukashenka then stressed that life in Russia and Belarus has changed dramatically and “import substitution is working well”. But it was notable that the leaders of both countries demanded respect from the West.
“There is everything they need here, and they have what we can buy: technology and so on. What else do they need? They just have to make responsible decisions. Well, if they don’t want to, don’t. We will slowly fall into line “, commented Lukashenka on the issue of sanctions.
To which Putin then said that Western countries still need to “treat us with respect”. At the talks in Sochi, the Belarusian leader also said that “NATO members are concentrating troops and preparing to dismember Ukraine”.
It should be noted that following the outcome of this meeting, no serious outcomes were reported. But Belarusian opposition media suggested that even then Lukashenka expressed his readiness for wider participation in the war against Ukraine.
