The Coordination Council, with which the opposition wanted to organize a peaceful transition to new elections, has effectively been beheaded. Six of the seven members of the Presidium are in jail or have been forcibly cross-bordered with neighboring Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine.
Dog marriage
The fact that Lukashenko is still on his throne is partly due to the dog-loyal power structures that he personally built up in the 26 years he has been in power. Police, security services and army have remained unconditionally behind him so far.
But batons, rubber bullets, water cannons, tear gas, detention vehicles and police cells lose their power when the powerful neighbor decides to turn the dial. In the end, it is Putin who keeps Lukashenko in the saddle.
He has a wide variety of instruments for that. Economically, former judoka Putin has his colleague in a hold. If Russia raises gas and oil prices, the Belarusian economy will plunge into an even deeper hole than it already occupies. The same is true if Moscow decides not to refinance Lukashenko’s foreign debts, restrict imports from Belarus or keep Russian ports closed, as Lithuania threatens to close its own to Belarus.
But Putin cannot just strangle Lukashenko economically. He has also provided propagandists for the state channel Russia Today to replace their former counterparts at the Belarusian state broadcaster who no longer support the regime’s lies. could get over their lips. He has a backup police force behind the hand just in case Lukashenko’s men can’t take it anymore.
Finger in the porridge
Putin does not do all of this for charity. He fears that Belarus will side with the West if the opposition takes over. Not that there are any concrete indications for this, but he wants to avoid even the smallest risk that the EU and especially NATO will move further towards the Russian borders. He thinks it is bad enough that the Baltic countries are in the Western camp. By intervening in Georgia and Ukraine, he has tried to limit the anti-Russian consequences of the revolutions there. In Belarus he does not want a revolution at all.
It is now impossible to say what agreements Putin and Lukashenko will make. It will certainly not be the case that the Russian flag will fly above the presidential palace in Minsk from Tuesday, but the Russian finger and the Belarusian porridge will be a lot thicker. And the opposition will continue to be hunted, arrested and prosecuted. Putin has made himself partly responsible for this.
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