Finally, the war against Ukraine has deprived Russia from its status as a leading energy power, ending the “golden age of gas” and accelerating the shift to renewable energy sources. This is the conclusion of the International Energy Agency (IEA), whose forecasts rely on the major industrialized Western countries, recalls the BBC.
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the Kremlin’s energy war with Europe are the biggest shock to the global energy market in half a century, after the great oil crisis of the 1970s, when Arab countries imposed an embargo on the West. To prevent such crises in the future, countries that use fossil fuels have turned to independent production of oil and gas, and to better predict supply and demand, they created the IEA.
On Thursday, it released its regular annual forecast, in which a significant portion was devoted to Russia.
“Until February 24th Russia was the first in the world as an exporter of fossil fuels. But Russia has lost its most important customer and market: Europe, “said the head of the IEA, Fatih Birol, presenting the forecasts during a briefing.
He recalled that 75% of Russian gas exports and 55% of oil exports go to Europe.
“It will be very difficult for Russia to compensate for the loss of the European market. It is difficult from an economic, technological and political point of view,” says Birol. – Therefore, the production and export of oil and gas from Russia it will decrease over the next few years. Russia will play a much smaller role in the global energy sector.
As a result, by 2030, Russia will lose about $ 1 trillion in export earnings, the IEA estimates.
The agency remembers it China will not be able to compensate the Old Continent’s rejection of Russian gas.
“Some people think that when Europe loses, China wins. It’s not that simple,” Birol said at a news conference. – In addition to infrastructure constraints, China is also changing and growth in Chinese gas demand will be much more modest than before. So we don’t see that China needs another major pipeline from Russia besides the already existing Power of Siberia.
As a result, by 2030, Russia’s share in the world energy market will shrink about 13% from 20% last year. The United States and the Middle East will win, their shares will increase.
But the main growth will come from renewable energy sources, not fossil fuels, the IEA says.
“As a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the global energy landscape is rapidly changing before our eyes. It has changed not for a while, but for decades,” says Birol. – The response of the authorities around the world to the crisis promises a historic and decisive turning point towards a cleanerthe cheaper and safer energy system of the future.
Analysts predict that green energy investments will increase to 2 trillion by 2030. dollar.
