“Lebanon Debate” – Muhammad Al-Madani
Army Commander General Joseph Aoun extended his presidential dream for a full year, which came out publicly at the lunch table he had with the candidate, head of the Marada Movement, Suleiman Franjieh. Aoun was able, with the help of countries and local political forces, to remain entrenched in his position in Yarzeh, making Baabda Palace his target after he was on the verge of exiting with a zero mark, at the level of leadership and presidency.
And because the opposition forces, represented by the “Lebanese Forces” and Phalange parties, the “Tajdeed” bloc, and some independent representatives, are keen on General Aoun’s presidential career, we see them insisting on keeping former Minister Jihad Azour in the presidential arena, specifically in the face of Franjieh, knowing that Azour’s card fell in the fourteenth session. Since last June, despite receiving 59 votes.
In the eyes of the opposition, the current Franjieh-Azour equation protects the army commander from the veto of the Shiite duo, and portrays him as a consensual candidate, not a candidate of challenge or confrontation. It needs Azour a lot during the coming period to maneuver with him, in the service of the army commander until the date of the grand settlement.
But realistically, the real presidential equation is the Joseph Aoun – Suleiman Franjieh equation, and after the leader’s extension was granted, the game is out in the open. Neither the Shiite duo, nor their allies, are ashamed of their support for Franjieh, nor is the Western camp, especially the United States of America, ashamed of its support for the army commander, and thus each axis has an axis. Candidate awaiting settlement.
According to a political authority, Joseph Aoun will not come as president of the republic unless there is a settlement accepted by the other side, represented by Iran and its allies, and Suleiman Franjieh will not become president except according to a major settlement that is acceptable to the other side, represented by America and its allies. Therefore, the competition currently is between these two men, and the intersection Candidate Jihad Azour has become an expired toy, with the knowledge of its owners.
With the internal horizon blocked, all eyes are turning to Gaza and the outcome of the regional-international settlement that will result, whether in security or politics, and it will inevitably happen at the end of the war.
The settlement, when it is reached, will be between the two conflicting axes in the region and will inevitably include Lebanon due to the necessity of addressing the problem of northern Israel. This will require guarantees from both sides to protect and implement the settlement, which will rearrange the cards between two sponsors, each of whom will present the candidate he needs to guarantee it.
The question remains: Which paper will be adopted in Lebanon when the hour comes: Joseph Aoun’s paper or Suleiman Franjieh’s paper?
2023-12-20 05:04:21
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