The biggest political scandal in the postwar period that greatly shook Japan was the Lockheed scandal, in which former Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka was found guilty of bribery and other charges.A porn actor, angered by the incident, crashes a small plane into the home of a political fixer.eventThere was also.
Now, half a century has passed since the Lockheed Incident was discovered, and suspicions of slush funds are hitting the Liberal Democratic Party, which has been in power for a long time. This suspicion should not be dismissed as simply a matter of omitted information on political funds.
The allegations, which involve a slush fund and involve numerous members of Congress seen as potential future prime minister candidates, could upend the entire political system of Japan, one of America’s most important allies.
The world’s media, which often report on Japan in terms of “strange Japan,” have not yet shown much interest in this scandal. However, Tobias Harris, an expert on Japanese politics and biographer of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, recently stated that thisOnce-in-a-generation political crisis” and pointed out that it is likely to have a wide-ranging impact.
Prosecutors have already searched the offices of two powerful factions of the Liberal Democratic Party on suspicion that several influential members of the party failed to properly report the income and expenditure of their political funding parties. Criminal charges and arrests are likely.
Sooner or later, this incident will spell the end for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. It can be said that Mr. Kishida’s unpopularity is unprecedented.Mainichi ShimbunAccording to a public opinion poll, the disapproval rate for the Cabinet reached nearly 80%, the worst result since the survey began in 1947.
So far, little has been reported about Mr. Kishida’s direct involvement in the fraud allegations, but there are speculations that the Kishida faction may also be involved.news coverageThere is also. In any case, the public’s criticism is directed towards Mr. Kishida. Although he hastily reshuffled his cabinet and eliminated pro-Abe members, this did little to restore his approval ratings.
risk
There is no strong rival, and potential challengers may be reluctant to come forward with support for the government so low. Therefore, Mr. Kishida may be able to hold out for the time being.
With national elections not scheduled until 2025, the risk of MPs losing their seats does not seem imminent yet. In the meantime, however, the Kishida government’s popularity has waned, paving the way for overt electoral tactics such as the recent temporary flat tax cuts.
Removing the Abe faction, the party’s largest faction, from the cabinet carries risks. One is that MPs who have avoided scandals are not necessarily the best candidates for the most important posts, as the Conservative Party in the UK removed MPs who supported remaining in the EU after leaving the EU. .
The other is that factions with little to lose could become rampant and destabilize the power of Mr. Kishida or anyone else. It is the leadership of the party who must secure support from the majority of the Liberal Democratic Party, a large family. It will be difficult to create good policy.
With Abe’s faction, which would have been enthusiastic about producing the next leader, now on the sidelines, support within the party could be solidified if Mr. Kishida were to abandon his administration, or in the presidential election scheduled for September next year. It becomes difficult.
Some believe that now is the time for a leader like Junichiro Koizumi in 2001 to emerge. If that happens, a reformist like Digital Minister Taro Kono or someone like former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, the second son of former Prime Minister Koizumi, who is backed by former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, may be recommended.
The Koizumi administration is fondly remembered for its bold reforms and one of the longest postwar economic booms. Alternatively, there is a risk that Japan will return to the era when prime ministers were replaced one after another after the Koizumi administration.
Political stability is effective in strengthening Japan’s presence on the international stage and deepening its personal relationships with foreign dignitaries. This undoubtedly worked to Japan’s detriment, as the United States found it difficult to deal with Japan, especially amidst the constant turmoil seen in Japan’s political world in the late 2000s.
If Kishida steps down as prime minister, his successor will likely take over important policies such as defense and semiconductor investment. However, Mr. Kishida’s achievements should not be underestimated.
When Mr. Abe was prime minister, he also aimed to double the defense budget, but was unable to do so. Even though Mr. Kishida has not considered how to finance the increase in defense spending, he has made the defense budget an important policy issue. On the other hand, Mr. Kishida, who worked hard to maintain party unity, had no choice but to backtrack on the liberal economic policies he had advocated before becoming prime minister.
populism
The scandal could even affect monetary policy. Although Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda did not mention the impact at a press conference on the 19th, analysts believe that if the presence of Abe’s faction, which already supports monetary easing, becomes less prominent, it will be easier for the Bank of Japan to end negative interest rates. I’m guessing it will be.
Mr. Kishida or the next prime minister will likely try to avoid further turmoil. Economic Revitalization Minister Yoshitaka Shindo attended the monetary policy meeting on the 19th, and this may have been the message he wanted to send with this unusual move.
Furthermore, the framework of the ruling coalition and the Liberal Democratic Party itself could be under threat. There will also be growing calls for the complete elimination of factions. The long-standing partnership between the Liberal Democratic Party and New Komeito, which has been in trouble for some time, may be ending.
As Harris writes, “the predictable stability that has characterized Japanese politics since 2012 has likely ended” when the second Abe administration took office.
Japan has destroyed many countries in the past 10 years.populismFor the most part, Japan has been able to avoid this trend. However, if the Liberal Democratic Party begins to lose seats, it may be forced to forge friendships with non-mainstream parties.
As has happened in other countries, there is a risk that this suspicion of a slush fund will exacerbate public disillusionment with the system itself and spill over into even more unfavorable things. This concern is exacerbated by the absence of a strong opposition party that could succeed the Liberal Democratic Party and become mainstream.
Either way, we stand at a crossroads that could fundamentally redefine Japanese politics in unexpected ways. This time it’s worth paying attention to.
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(Reedy Garroud is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. The content of this column does not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editorial board, Bloomberg LP, or its owners.)
Original title:No, Seriously, This Japan Scandal Is Important: Gearoid Reidy (excerpt)
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
2023-12-21 06:24:02
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