Orlando Ferreres: We forecast the current gap by the end of the year. In other words, the official dollar will go up, as will the CCL, the MEP and the blue in proportion. By not eliminating the PAIS tax, it is difficult for the value of the dollar to fall below $ 160, at least for the duration of that situation. But I think it will be a controlled rise, there will not be a rapid loss of the situation. It will go up little by little, we expect a monthly devaluation between 2% and 2.5% in the remainder of the year.
Q .: Can this rise in dollars generate extra pressure on inflation?
O.F.: I don’t think so, because it has very little effect in practical life. A greater devaluation of the official would have an effect. For example, the international price of meat rose due to the greater demand from abroad, especially the cheaper products, which China buys for example, and it also rose by the official dollar. The rise of the two things led to a 70% increase in the last year, with inflation around 40%.
Q .: Do you think that the rise in prices will tend to slow down in the coming months?
O.F.: I think it will be difficult to lower it. It could go down from 4% to 2%, quietly, but then it will recover again. We do not see that the fiscal conditions are in place so that money does not have to be lent from the Central Bank to the Treasury and then the monetary pressure on the price level will continue. That is the true reality. Then there is a second cause that can be wages, rates, maximum prices, the price of gasoline, and so on. But, ultimately, the main cause is the problem of the amount of money that is issued.
Q .: In this context, do you see it feasible that this year wages could beat inflation?
O.F.: Most of the increases that go by agreement are around 32% and inflation is going to be a little more. That would require a correction before the elections so that wages can beat prices to some extent. Otherwise, they would be left behind.
Q .: Can the new measures for the pandemic put a brake on the expected rebound for the economy?
O.F.: For this year, a recovery of 8% is expected. With these measures, you can give 7% increase in Product. You can slow down the rebound a bit, but not too much. The second wave may not have the same effect as the first.
Q .: At this juncture, how urgent is it to reach an agreement with the IMF? Can it happen before the elections?
O.F.: I think it is fundamental. Very important, because it would give a certain endorsement in the international context. The agreement with the private creditors has already been made, but that did not mean an economic plan. Now, if an agreement is made with the Extended Facility Fund for ten years, as they say it could be, it would be good if it was achieved as soon as possible. And the same is an agreement with the Paris Club.
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