17/09/2022 11:41 Last update: 11:54
The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), led by the United States and aimed at China, has just taken its first steps when it is faced with an embarrassing situation. India stressed that, seeing no advantage, the announcement of its temporary withdrawal from the IPEF trade negotiations will inevitably affect the effectiveness of the IPEF “encirclement”.
Last week, the IPEF held its first ministerial meeting in Los Angeles. According to a statement after the meeting, only 13 of the 14 member states fully adhered to the four pillars of the IPEF and only India withdrew from the trade negotiations. Indian media quoted India’s Minister of Trade and Industry Goyal as saying that the benefits countries have gained from trade and whether they will discriminate against developing countries have not yet been seen. India will continue to participate in the negotiations. trade as an observer.
In May of this year, Biden announced the launch of the IPEF during his visit to Japan. AP image.
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In October 2021, when Biden participated in video at the East Asia Summit, he first proposed the concept of building the IPEF. By May of this year, during his visit to Japan, Biden announced the launch of the IPEF. United States, Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, thirteen countries including Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines and Brunei became the initial members. Subsequently, Fiji, an island country in the South Pacific, also announced to join the IPEF.
It’s just that the IPEF has just started and the commercial pillar has suffered setbacks. Since the negotiation of the four pillars may be optional, India’s move does not violate the rules of the IPEF. Some analysts believe that, considering India’s huge population and booming economic outlook, India’s temporary withdrawal from trade negotiations means that the first step in the US Indo-Pacific economic layout has been lost.
Sun Lipeng, a research associate at the American Institute of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, told the People’s Daily Online that India has announced its temporary withdrawal from IPEF trade negotiations to safeguard its right to development. other developing countries participating in the IPEF There are similar interests. These countries are generally concerned that while the US is promoting the IPEF, it does not intend to open its market or make concessions to other countries – this approach will only add further burden to developing countries. Although other Member States have temporarily joined trade negotiations, they have mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude.
Dai Qi, US trade representative. AP image.
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US trade representative Dai Qi previously said that the USTR does not intend to remove US tariff barriers as a focus of the IPEF framework talks. The Associated Press reported that the US is concerned about domestic protectionist sentiment and other factors. It has neither provided preferential conditions to enter the US market nor made commitments on tariffs. The attractiveness of the IPEF is inevitably called into question.
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The analysis believes that this US behavior amounts to “not only asking the horse to run, but also asking the horse not to eat grass,” which lacks true sincerity in cooperation. American scholars have pointed out that the essence of the IPEF is that the Biden administration hopes to introduce a framework to eliminate the former administration’s “America First” policy on the Indo-Pacific against the backdrop of the domestic political atmosphere in the states. United is no longer keen on “globalization” and “free trade”. At the same time, other countries will gain benefits such as opening their markets to the US and accepting US trade rules and rule rule.
Wei Zongyou, a professor at the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, pointed out that there are many differences between Member States other than India and the United States: for example, the communiqué from the first ministerial meeting mentioned the need to promote the flow credible and secure cross-border data and promote inclusivity.However, in terms of cross-border data flow, the relevant laws and regulations of Vietnam and other ASEAN countries are significantly different from those of the United States and their interest requires are also inconsistent.
Wei Zongyou also said that ASEAN countries and Fiji certainly hope the United States will help them promote home infrastructure construction, develop clean energy technologies, promote economic development and increase employment. through the IPEF, but they don’t want to see the US in the Asia Pacific Region and wild game.
“Nikkei Asia” stressed that in addition to India’s non-participation in trade negotiations, the IPEF is currently facing other difficulties. Some countries fear they will have to adopt US standards for the environment, human rights, data distribution, and more. Furthermore, IPEF member countries are generally heavily dependent on trade with China. Without China’s participation, the international trade framework related to supply chains and carbon reduction will be severely limited. It is unrealistic for the US to create an independent economic space from China.
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Some analysts are even more concerned that the IPEF could become a “half-triggered” project at any time. Specifically, the Biden administration hopes the IPEF deal can be concluded within 18 months or even a year. The informal APEC Leaders’ Meeting to be held in November next year is expected to represent an “unofficial deadline” for finalizing the IPEF agreement.
Xu Liping, a researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, stressed that many factors will lead the IPEF to become a “halfway” project: first, the principles and standards. of the IPEF are led and formulated by the United States, reflecting the consistent bullying behavior of the United States. The “menu-style” model has the nature of “compulsory consumption”, and it is difficult for Member States to fully accept it; second, developed economies such as Japan and South Korea are not directly proportional to their expenses and cannot bear the cost of complete decoupling from China; third, the ASEAN countries are concerned about the centrality of ASEAN The impact is very heavy on the IPEF; fourth, the US has a severe credit drop and there is a lot of uncertainty as to whether the US will meet its commitments; fifth, economic issues are politicized, armed and ideological, which are contrary to the code of success of Asia-Pacific cooperation.
Sun Lipeng pointed out that the relatively loose IPEF proposed by the United States itself has highlighted the reality of the decline of US absolute power. Neither in terms of market size nor in terms of share of global GDP, the United States has the ability to carry out a more legally binding economic or trade deal. This will cause the IPEF to face more obstacles in the specific negotiation process. He believes there is a fundamental problem with the IPEF, which is that “politics” is in command, security is prioritized and economic benefits are low, which will inevitably affect the willingness of other Member States to participate in the future.
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Wei Zongyou believes that considering that the United States has withdrawn from the TPP, and protectionism and domestic trade populism are on the rise, I believe the Biden administration does not have many expectations for the IPEF. in economic development they are actually impossible, and member states will gradually see that the so-called strengthening of ties is just a “flower in the mirror” and “the moon in the water”.
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deep Throat
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