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The forecast shows that basic foodstuffs will rise by another 7% by the end of the year. PHOTO: YORDAN SIMEONOV
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There has been no 4.8% appreciation compared to 12 months ago in Bulgaria since September 2012, when the economy was recovering from the global crisis
In September, the annual inflation in Bulgaria jumped sharply and from 3.7%, as it was in August, became 4.8%, the NSI announced on Monday.
In practice, this is a 9-year record: the last time annual inflation of 4.9% in our country was recorded in September 2012. Then began the first economic recovery after the great financial crisis and in a short period of several months – from the end in the summer of 2012 to winter, annual inflation ranged between 3.5 and 4.9%. Then, however, the indices calmed down and such a large increase in prices on an annual basis was not observed until the pandemic.
They are currently exceeded
all possible forecasts of ours
and foreign banks and institutions
for inflation. The latest updated forecasts of the BNB, the Ministry of Finance, the European Commission, the World Bank and the IMF indicated a maximum of 3.5-3.7% annual inflation in Bulgaria by the end of the year.
Hypothetically, this is still possible, as the monthly increase in prices in September compared to August was only 0.4%, while the previous month was 0.8%, and was around this percentage in previous months.
Fuel is again at the heart of inflation
and related transport costs,
as well as the increase in overhead costs for housing, ie. electricity, water, heating, gas bills. Since last month, the NSI has included real estate prices in the costs of housing, and it turns out that since last September, this group of costs has increased by 5.9%.
In general, the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages have increased by 4.4% over the last year, and the bills in catering establishments – by 4.2%.
On Monday, the chairman of the State Commission on Commodity Exchanges and Markets, Vladimir Ivanov, told BNR that he allows staple foods to rise by another 7% by the end of the year. Despite the higher prices of basic energy raw materials, however, according to him, there can be no sharp jump in prices, mainly due to the highly competitive market and shrinking consumption.
“Of the staple foods
only with oil
we have some
abrupt change
since last year. But it is still less than it was in the summer – then reached 53% difference from last year. The harvest is very good and I expect a downward trend, “said Ivanov.
He predicts that due to higher energy costs, food produced by the processing industry could become more expensive. In the end, however, if the 27 staple foods are put in the consumer basket, they cost about 5-7% cheaper last year, he said.
The main motor fuels in September registered a relatively slight increase in prices, which is within 1 and below 1 percent on a monthly basis. The only exception is methane, the price of which depends directly on that of natural gas –
the main fuel of taxis
has risen in price with 10 percent
only from August to September.
In October, however, basic fuels continued to rise in price and on Monday diesel broke a 3-year record – the average price of all gas stations reached BGN 2.38, as it was in September 2018.
The mass gasoline A95 is already BGN 2.37,
which is only about 2-3 stotinki cheaper than at the peak of its prices in September 2018.
In Germany, however, gasoline broke a 9-year price record earlier this week.
At the same time, oil prices continue to move up and on Monday the Brent variety reached a new 3-year price record – 86.40 dollars per barrel.
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