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– Infected fell by 31% in a week to 2800, but the death toll is still a record 161 average per day
4053 deaths recorded by the national statistics for the last week, which is included in its reports – from 1 to 7 November (see chart). 1000 of them are from the coronavirus. The average mortality rate in November before the epidemic was about 2,150 a week. This leaves 900 emergencies, most likely directly related to the peak of the fourth COVID wave.
For the last five reported weeks, the NSI shows over 4000 people in the column of the so-called hidden mortality – the increase compared to the normal seasonal cases in which COVID-19 was not cited as the cause.
In 2020, during the peak in November and December, thousands of deaths appeared above the usual levels for Bulgaria and outside the statistics for the victims of the virus. It has been noticed that as the number of deaths from COVID increases to levels above 60-70 per day, the “additional” deaths begin to increase, surpassing them more than 2 times at the peak. In the last two months of 2020, these cases exceeded 10,000.
At the beginning of this year, the “hidden” mortality disappeared, but in March and April 2021 – during the second big wave, it reappeared and was about 6,000 people. In the current wave, NSI data again report unusually high levels of overall mortality since early October.
An increase in the number of victims by 2.5% to 161 people on average per day is reported by the statistics for the last week. On Tuesday, the national information portal reported 276 deaths. However, the data on Tuesday are accumulated from Saturday and Sunday, when not all cases are entered into the system on time. If we add to these 276 deaths from Saturday and Sunday – 66 and 88, respectively, we get 430, or an average of 133 for the three days.
The trend already clearly shows a decline in morbidity – an average of 2819 new cases per day were registered in Bulgaria for the period, which is 31% less than the previous week. This drop in the number of patients in the last two weeks will soon lead to a significant drop in the number of victims after the nightmarish last week, which made us the first in the world in terms of current average mortality per capita. We are followed by Georgia, Latvia, Armenia, Romania, Ukraine, Moldova and Croatia.
7924 people were hospitalized on Tuesday (-9%) and 767 (+ 3%) in the intensive care units. On a two-week basis, the number of patients is already 701 per 100,000 population as of November 17, although some areas have not yet been able to fall from the dark red zone by about 1,000.
The share of those infected among those tested also dropped to 8.8% (20,000 out of 224,000 surveyed during the week).
Currently, Austria, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands and Hungary have the fastest growth in new cases in the world, while Slovenia and Croatia have the most per capita.
However, according to a report by Statista (German statistical agency), as of last week, Bulgaria had administered only 44 doses of vaccine per 100 people – the lowest percentage in Europe. Poor vaccination coverage is directly linked to some of the highest COVID-19 death rates per capita in the world. This is also proved by Romania, which follows us in the ranking with the second lowest vaccination rate in the EU.
Unexplained deaths in the EU as a whole rose to 12% in September, Eurostat said. Growth was rapid and began in late summer from a low 5% in July. The Balkans recorded the highest increase in their normal mortality rate of 40% in November 2020.
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