The Multisectoral Commission in charge of National Study of the “El Niño” Phenomenon (ENFEN) of which the Geophysical Institute of Peru (IGP), reported that there is a 33% probability that the conditions for La Niña to occur in the central Pacific, in the months of December 2020 to March 2021.
The ENFEN has activated the alert state “Surveillance of the Coastal Girl”, since a cooling in sea and air temperatures has been observed off the coast of Peru. If this persists, it could trigger the La Niña event, of weak magnitude until the end of the year.
Through a statement, it warns that this cooling also occurs in the central Pacific and could last until summer 2021. Dr. Yamina Silva, a researcher at the IGP, explained that El Niño and La Niña are the anomalous warming and cooling of sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which are part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the main cause of interannual variations in climate on our planet and in Peru.
Monitoring and investigation
The IGP, through its research, has documented the La Niña’s impact on the intense rainfall and high flows of the Peruvian Amazon basin. The decrease in sea surface temperature (SST) in the central Pacific, associated with La Niña, generates warming in the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea, which allows an increase in the transport of moisture to the Peruvian Amazon.
“The intense rains and floods that occurred, in 2012, in the Amazon regions of northern Peru such as Loreto, need greater consideration on the ocean-atmospheric mechanisms to be able to identify the events, take preventive measures and reduce their impacts”, comments the Dra. Silva.
He added that the IGP investigations indicate that La Niña favors the occurrence of above-normal rainfall in the Andes during the rainy season. She also said that the veranillos, during La Niña, are less frequent and an increase in rainy days is expected. Regarding the onset of rains, recent studies suggest that La Niña favors the early start and late end of the rainy season.
According to the results of the investigations and if the cold conditions continue in the tropical Pacific Ocean and consolidate as a cold event “La Niña”, a good rainy season would be expected for the Peruvian Andes, while the Amazon could present very heavy rains. intense and increased flows.
“Let’s not forget that these investigations contribute to generating knowledge, which should be used to take preventive measures,” said the IGP researcher.
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