Huang Lichen: Gold fluctuates low, watch out for boot landing and rising market
On Wednesday, September 21, the international gold market fluctuated in a narrow range on the Asian market: the price of gold opened in the morning at $ 1,664, with a low of $ 1,661 and a high of $ 1,676. $ 1,670. As the Fed’s interest rate decision approaches, the expectation atmosphere in the gold market is gradually warming, short-term fluctuations tend to fluctuate, and price fluctuations are narrowing.
Last week, US CPI data rose unexpectedly and market sentiments began to reach consensus.It is generally believed that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by at least 75 basis points, pushing the dollar higher. , approaching the high of the last 20 years. exerting more pressure on gold, but the geopolitical situation is still tense and concerns about the European energy crisis and economic recession have attracted bargain hunting and the purchase of safe haven assets to support the gold price, limiting the further decline in gold. the price of gold has rebounded multiple times since then, all of which have encountered resistance near a pressure of $ 1,680.
In terms of news, the geopolitical situation is still tense: it once pushed gold up to $ 10 in the short term during the day. to a decline in US equities, hitting a new low in the past two months. Provide support. The head of the European Central Bank said Tuesday that interest rates may need to be raised to levels that limit economic growth to fight high inflation, the Bank of Canada said Tuesday that it will continue to do whatever it takes to reduce the rate. inflation, and the Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates by at least 75 basis points tonight., The prospect of interest rate hikes from global central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, has put gold prices under pressure .
Regarding the Fed’s interest rate decision in the evening, Huang Lichen said on Monday that ahead of the announcement of the interest rate decision, gold is expected to continue to be under pressure Gold prices rebounded after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points. points. Judging from the past, generally before the Fed raises interest rates, the market tends to short on gold. Following the rise in interest rates, due to the depletion of short-term negative interest, the short side took the opportunity to close short positions and gold often rebounded sharply. Last but not least, a surprise 100bp rate hike by the Fed could weigh heavily on gold prices, although the odds are not currently predicted by the market.
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Technically, at the weekly and monthly levels of gold, the moving average indicator is dead, the MACD indicator is dead, the KDJ and RSI indicators are dead and the current is in a clear bear market and many parts are weak; at the daily level, gold fluctuates Declining, short-term low-level fluctuations and consolidation, the KDJ and RSI indicators have emerged, showing the need for correction and consolidation, but the moving average indicator is dead, the band Bollinger’s is falling, the MACD indicator is dead and the bearish momentum is still strong, in an advantageous position.
Overall, while the tense geopolitical situation and concerns about the global economic recession have attracted bargain hunting and safe-haven buying, providing some support for the price of gold, the expectation of aggressive price rises. Federal Reserve Interest Rates Prior to Interest Rate Decision Gold prices are still weak and there is a risk of further declines. In operation, before the price of gold rises above $ 1680, Huang Lichen believes that the possibility of gold swinging and falling is greater. He is advised to go short on rallies. Upper pressure should focus on US $ 1680 and lower support should focus on US $ 1653 and US $ 1644.
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