The regional elections, on June 20 and 27, take on the appearance of a trial run before the presidential election of 2022. Some illustrations: like Laurent Wauquiez in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, several candidates make security an axis of their campaign, while this theme is not a direct competence of the region. But a matter of concern for the French nationally.
Committed members of the government
For his part, Emmanuel Macron, candidate for re-election next year, launches a dozen ministers or secretary of state at the front. Including five in Hauts-de-France, where Xavier Bertrand, declared candidate for 2022, has a good chance of winning, followed by the National Rally (RN).
Among the members of the government, two mastodons of the regalian: Éric Dupond-Moretti, Minister of Justice, and Gérald Darmanin, Minister of the Interior. This gives visibility to La République en Marche (LREM) in a ballot and in areas where, in reality, the movement has little presence. And on themes dear to the RN of Marine Le Pen, which the polls announce in a duel with Macron in the second round of 2022.
Like primaries
and: Valérie Pécresse in Ile-de-France, – like Xavier Bertrand – made her victory at the head of the Region the condition of her candidacy for the presidential election, inextricably linking the two elections. Conversely, in the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (Paca) region, the candidate LR Renaud Muselier, up against his party for having approached LREM, asked, Friday, May 14, that we stop nationalize
this regional election …
Basically, this election plays a little the role of the primaries that the parties do not want to organize
, analysis Laurence Morel, associate researcher at the Sciences Po Political Research Center (Cevipof) and lecturer at the University of Lille. And, in this game, Macron also wants to exist.
“Nationalization of the ballot”
This strategy of nationalization of the regional ballot is assumed by all the parties.
, said on his side Benjamin Morel, lecturer at Paris-2 University. Dangerous game? No ! Apart from the defeat of a media minister like Dupond-Moretti, for others, less known, there is little risk. But it is tactically very smart on Macron’s part. LREM puts itself in a position to force alliances, in the first or second round, the outgoing majorities to counter the RN. This will allow him to say, on election night:
“We didn’t lose, we helped beat the RN”.
» And to arrive stronger in 2022.
Likewise, if the RN won the Hauts-de-France or Paca, it could testify in one year of its ability to manage a region. But this managerial capacity is lacking today
.
The regional, springboard for the presidential election? This contamination of local elections by national issues is not new, said Laurence Morel. And it tends rather to regress. Except today, in a very cyclical situation, linked to the proximity of the presidential election
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