The cabinet members of Biden have recently unanimously declared a strong policy stance on China, which seems to be continuing Trump’s confrontation and conflict line with China. However, major changes have taken place in the US domestic and international environments around the New Year, and the Biden administration’s strategy to deal with China is also Adjust quietly.
Biden’s strategy to deal with China is simple and clear: unite allies. What is not simple is how to actually do it. Today, the international situation is surging, and the Indo-Pacific region has become a hot spot for conflicts between major powers. Kurt Campbell, the coordinator of Indo-Pacific affairs for the “Asian Czar” of the Biden administration, compared the situation of the Indo-Pacific today to the situation after the Napoleonic Wars in Europe in the 19th century. The balance of power between nations ensures long-term peace.
The Metternich system, also known as “Concert of Europe”, was created by the Austrian politician Clemens. Metternich (Klemens von Metternich, 1773-1859) led the founding and maintained the longest peace in modern Europe for nearly 100 years after Napoleon’s fall in 1815.
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When the French Napoleon’s army swept through Europe, Austria was forced to follow the French aggression because of its defeat. In addition, the republican revolutionary thought swept through Europe. The immediate situation after the war was not good for the monarchy countries, and the Austrian Empire was particularly fragile. Metternich, the diplomat, used superb skills to create an international order that is conservative and traditional, balanced by the interests of all countries and is willing to accept, and at the same time prolonged Austria’s status as a major power.
Under the Metternich system, France lost all Napoleon’s conquests of land, but its inherent power was retained and the royal family was restored; the territories of Prussia, Austria, and Russia were significantly expanded, and many countries were able to check and balance each other and reduce the incentive to resort to force; British security was also due to There is no guarantee that Europe will be dominant, and it will enter the heyday of Victoria. Although there have been sporadic wars in Europe for a century, no extensive wars have been seen, and the peace of the Metternich system did not collapse until the First World War in 1914.
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Back to today, Campbell’s Metternich system metaphor sounds mixed from a Chinese perspective.
The good news is that the Metternich system emphasizes the balance of power, and peace is the ultimate goal. France was defeated but not eliminated, but continued to be a member of the great powers. Campbell compared the Indo-Pacific with that, which means the Biden administration’s view of the game between China and the United States. Then there is the life and death of the Trump administration.
The worry is that the Metternich system is an international order imposed by the victorious country on the defeated country. The Indo-Pacific has enjoyed universal peace for many years, and this peace is also the soil for China’s development and growth. In talking about the Metternich system, Campbell still seeks to prevent the rise of China and maintain the status of the first brother of the United States. He does not even rule out the intention to let the Indo-Pacific countries toss each other and restore the dominance of the United States outside the region.
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Campbell’s next specific strategy is somewhat new. He changed people’s general thinking and argued that the United States need not seek to establish a single major alliance to fight China. Instead, it is more flexible, establishing multiple looser and temporary small alliances on different issues. Trade, technology, supply chain and market standards are all issues that urgently need to establish alliances.
It can be said that Campbell’s proposal is relatively pragmatic and closer to the traditional deployment of American diplomacy in Asia… If his idea is adopted by the Biden administration, the probability of direct confrontation between China and the United States is expected to decrease, but this also has its “old and mysterious” element. ….. And always staying in the perspective of geopolitics, arms race, and ideology to look at the Sino-US game, but has not answered the biggest challenge facing the United States, that is, the rise of China is a…
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[Fulltextforsubscribers:Chineseandforeignwide-anglelens——Biden quietly adjusted China policy may still be the wrong medicine】
Follow up[China-US wrestling]new situation, immediately understand
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Author: Lian Zhaofeng
Column name: China and foreign countries
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