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Geologists Can Predict Mount Eruption Using Supercomputer

Telset.id, Jakarta Technology turns out to be able to help experts to know natural phenomena. These geologists, for example, are able to predict volcanic eruptions through supercomputers.

With supercomputer With an enhanced and strategic modeling program, a team of geologists has managed to predict a volcanic eruption at the Sierra Negra volcano up to 5 months before the eruption occurs.

The volcano forecasting modeling program was founded in 2017 by geology professor Patricia Gregg and her team. They install programs on supercomputers from Blue Water and iForge.


Meanwhile, the volcano that is expected to erupt is the Sierra Negra volcano located in the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador.

Gregg explained that the Sierra Negra volcano is the type of mountain that used to give all the signs before it erupted. For example the release of gas, increased seismic activity, and groundwell.

Even so, Mount Negra does not mean it is easy to know the date of its eruption.

In order to find out when the volcano erupted, the team used a supercomputer by collecting all the data about the activity of the mountain and analyzing it on the fast computer technology.

The results are surprising. The research conducted in January 2018 managed to find out when the mountain would erupt 5 months before the phenomenon occurred.

At that time the supercomputer machine predicted that the eruption would occur between June 25, 2018 or July 5, 2018.

Furthermore the supercomputer is also capable of the Sierra Negra eruption cycle and helps evaluate the timing of future eruptions.

“Our model predicts that the rock strength containing the Sierra Negra magma chamber will become very unstable between June 25 and July 5, and possibly result in mechanical failure and subsequent eruptions,” Gregg said.

Next Gregg presented his findings at a scientific conference in March 2018.

A few months later, one of the scientists at the Ecuadorian project, Dennis Geist, sent information to himself that the volcano erupted on June 26, 2018, or missed one day from forecast.


“Sierra Negra erupted 1 day after our earliest estimated mechanical failure date. We are disappointed,” said Gregg.

Even so, Gregg said he was satisfied with his achievements and the findings were published in the journal Science Advances.

In the journal Gregg and team write that incorporating high-performance supercomputers into practical research can yield extraordinary results. [NM/IF]

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