Military offensive in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine is also not going as Russia planned, reads an assessment from the United States.
– We believe and assess it so that they are behind schedule in terms of what they are trying to achieve in the Donbas, says a senior official in the US Department of Defense to the news agency DPA.
Former Chief of Defense Sverre Diesen is currently chief researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment (FFI). He says little Russian progression in the East looks strange to those in the West who know the Russian military.
– After all, the Russians had a fairly long break before they started up the offensive in Donbas again. Nevertheless, it does not appear that they are able to coordinate this operation, not even at the ground level.
– Sverre Diesen, who is chief researcher at FFI, believes that Russia is not able to achieve effective cooperation between the various troop types in the army. Photo: Frode Sunde / TV 2
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– Pleasant surprise for the West
Russia and President Vladimir Putin wanted to take over Kyiv and Ukraine quickly and effectively at the start of the invasion, however it did not go as planned.
Diesen believes that Russian forces are still showing the same weaknesses now, as was seen in the operations against the capital.
– That we see the same weaknesses now is surprising. The operation against Kyiv could, after all, be explained by the fact that the Russians were surprised that they did not manage to capture the city, and as far as the whole of Ukraine, within a couple of days.
– Smoke rises from an oil refinery in Lysychansk north of Donetsk. The former defense chief says a type of help Ukraine receives from the West is important. Photo: Ronaldo Schemidt / AFP / NTB
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Russia has thus had to improvise, but they have had plenty of time for this, according to Diesen.
– This means that this may be more reminiscent of structural weaknesses in the entire Russian army, than something that can only be explained by the circumstances surrounding this operation.
– How serious is it?
– It is of course serious for the Russians, and it is a pleasant surprise for us in the West. Because it may mean, if it is true, that the Russian army is a less formidable opponent than one might think in advance.
– Very important
The assessment from the USA also states that Russia had hoped to make far greater progress by encircling Ukrainian forces in the Donbas, but they have been met with fierce resistance.
– FIRE: A house is on fire in the city of Sevierodonetsk in Donetsk. Diesen is clear on what we can expect in the next few days in Ukraine. Photo: Fadel Senna / AFP / NTB
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When asked about Ukraine’s capacity when it comes to intelligence, the former defense chief says that it has become relatively good during the 30 years the country has been an independent state.
– Then they get quite extensive western help. We know, among other things, that the Ukrainians receive ongoing real-time information about the Russian forces, says Diesen.
– How crucial is it for the fight they are fighting?
– It is very important.
He points out that the Ukrainian defense, for example, receives information from satellites, which enables them to use the artillery effectively.
The evacuation of Mariupol: – The Russians have problems
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– They simply receive information about the movements and location of Russian forces, which they can feed directly into their own information systems, and use it to protect Russian units effectively with their own artillery.
In the days ahead, we can expect a continuation of the ongoing operations, Diesen believes.
– But then it becomes a very big question about how the Russians should relate to the fact that things are not much better.
– SPECULATIONS: May 9 is usually marked on a large scale with a military parade in Moscow, but this year the celebration will take place with the war in Ukraine as a backdrop. How it will be, more people are wondering. Photo: Sergey Pyatakov / AP / NTB
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Speculation about Putin will turn around
There has long been speculation about how Putin will mark May 9. This is the day when Russia celebrates the victory in World War II.
Among other things, Western intelligence has speculated that Putin wanted to declare some kind of victory on this day.
Diesen is clear on what it will look like if the president has no more to refer to, in light of the fact that the war is not going as planned.
– It will look very bad.
If, for example, he wants to be able to take over the famous steelworks in Mariupol by this date, then he may be able to use it as a kind of marking of a victory, Diesen says.
There have also been reports that the United States and Western officials believe Putin will declare war against Ukraine this day. Until now, the Russians have described the invasion as “a special operation”. This will enable Russia to mobilize all the reserve forces in the country.
– MOBILIZATION: Diesen believes Putin can use the fact that the war in Ukraine is not going as planned for a national mobilization of Russian resources into the war. Photo: Mikhail Tereschenko / AP / NTB
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Diesen believes that it is also speculated whether Putin will not mark May 9 as usual.
– Maybe he chooses to highlight the fact that things are not going so well, and uses it to justify an extensive use and recall of reserves, says Diesen.
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