Exactly 100 years ago, the last victim of the Spanish flu died. The Spanish flu, which struck Europe from 1918 to 1920, remains the deadliest epidemic of modern times. Fortunately, in 1920 the disease disappeared spontaneously and its macabre destruction stopped, almost overnight.
How could it have happened? And will it be the same with coronavirus? Our colleague from VRT, Jos Vandervelden, conducted the investigation.
The Spanish flu wreaked havoc between 1918 and 1920, at the end of the First World War. And if the virus was first detected in the United States, the epidemic was named after Spain because it was there that it first attracted the attention of the media.
Medical historian Robrecht Van Hee (UAntwerp) has studied this flu pandemic. “Many figures on victims are circulating because there were no official reports“, he said in” The world today “on Radio 1.
“Historians and scientists still disagree. The figures are extremely variable, between a third of the world’s population and several tens of thousands. It is generally estimated that the figure of 5 million deaths is the closest to the actual death rate. 5 million is also an estimate of the number of soldiers killed during the First World War“.
But according to other studies, the virus has claimed 50 million lives. Researchers Niall Johnson and Juergen Mueller even estimated in 2002 that the “real toll” of the epidemic could be in the order of 100 million victims.
Anyway, the Spanish flu “is the deadliest pandemic of modern times“. For the Flemish historian:”The plague, this plague of the Middle Ages is, of course, even more present in the collective memory of humanity. But even before that, there have been devastating epidemics: the 2nd century smallpox virus that struck the Romans or the 6th century plague epidemic“.
Spanish flu disappeared spontaneously
In 1920, the Spanish flu spread to the European continent, claiming many victims. According to sources, the last victim was recorded in March or December of this year.
For Robrecht Van Hee: “Presumably, the epidemic ended spontaneously. This is generally the case for epidemics. At some point, the immunity of non-lethal victims increases. If resistance to a virus increases, a solution must be found, a mutation. A mutation appeared, but as a result, virulence (a measure of the amount of damage a microorganism does to its host) has declined. The Spanish flu virus therefore spontaneously regressed. Sooner or later it will be the same with the coronavirus“.
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The rapid spread of the coronavirus in China inevitably brings back memories of the Spanish flu 100 years ago. “But the circumstances were completely different from today“says Professor Van Hee.
“The H1N1 virus of this Spanish flu was a very virulent strain, and therefore very contagious. Yet it is war that is the main cause of this epidemic. The soldiers were the great spreaders of the virus. They moved from place to place. At the same time, the population was weakened and the immune resistance weak“.
The problem is now called “fake news”, when at the time there was “no news”
“The virus was discovered too late and once it was discovered, communications were interrupted. Little has been covered about the epidemic. With the Covid-19, the new coronavirus, the problem is called ‘fake news’: we do not know if the Chinese figures are correct. At the time of the Spanish flu, the problem was the opposite: there was ‘no news’.“
“At first, people did not even know the virus. The virus was only properly described in the 1930s with the development of the electron microscope. It was only after World War II that we were able to distinguish the different viruses and their level of infectivity“.
“We are now talking about a 2% mortality rate for coronavirus. It may not have been otherwise for the Spanish flu. But 100 years ago, there were only antipyretics and a form of quarantine. Today, not only is the news flowing quickly around the world, but action is taken immediately“, says the historian.
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Global warming again in question
Human beings are increasingly able to kill epidemics in the bud, such as swine flu and the SARS virus. “But global warming should worry everyone“, concludes Robrecht Van Hee.”Many infectious diseases are caused by transmission vectors, often animals such as rats, mosquitoes and bats. If these vectors move north due to global warming, they can transmit tropical diseases there. Particularly in subtropical areas where people are less immune to these diseases, they can strike hard“.
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