NieuwsuurDonald Trump and Joe Biden
Joe Biden kicked off the American election year on Friday, with a fierce speech about Donald Trump. “Trump’s campaign is about him, not about America, not about you. He is willing to sacrifice our democracy,” Biden said in his first campaign speech.
Biden’s words are not just election rhetoric. Partly it’s really how many Americans will experience this year’s election race for president, political experts say. And although the Republicans have yet to put forward a candidate, Biden now assumes that he will have to compete against Trump.
Concerns about Trump are justified, experts say. And not just in the US. Europe must also prepare seriously for his return and the possible consequences for European security. “We have to prepare ourselves mentally for this,” says political philosopher and professor of European Law Luuk van Middelaar (Leiden University). “Trump can really come back. We should not be surprised like in 2016.”
Radical plans
Eight years ago, no one would have seen Trump’s win coming. Political America now knows better. He has a loyal Republican following and his challengers in the primaries are miles behind in the polls. The general election is not until November and will be exciting, but also in the polls pitting Trump against Biden, is slightly ahead of Trump on average.
Trump already has far-reaching plans for when he is president again. Among other things, he says he wants more mass deportation of illegal migrants, a new entry ban for people from a number of Muslim countries, tax breaks and regulatory relief for fossil energy companies and the death penalty for drug traffickers. Most Republicans will support his policies, but certainly the more radical plans may be blocked by Congress or the Supreme Court.
NAVO-exit?
What Europe must especially take into account is Trump’s intention to leave NATO, or in any case no longer want to stand up for the principle of common defense: Article 5 of the NATO Charter. The fear is that Europe will be left alone in defending Ukraine and Eastern Europe against Russian aggression.
“The mindset of ‘it will be fine, he doesn’t mean it’ is the worst possible response,” said Jeremy Shapiro (European Council on Foreign Relations), an expert in Atlantic relations. “Europeans have a responsibility to listen to world leaders, whether it is Vladimir Putin or Donald Trump. And to take them seriously, even when they say things you would rather not hear.”
With his human skills, Rutte, as NATO boss, could bring Trump to reason.
Luuk van Middelaar, political philosopher
As president, Trump already threatened to withdraw America from NATO. He thought it was unfair that the Americans paid most of NATO’s budget and he called the alliance outdated.
The war in Ukraine has actually made NATO more relevant for the defense of Europe and keeping Russia in check, but Trump’s complaints have not disappeared. On the contrary, says Van Middelaar. “Trump has become even more convinced that it is not in America’s interest to be responsible for European security.”
AFPVan Middelaar (second from right) with German Chancellor Scholz (second from left), Prime Minister Rutte (third from right) and French President Macron (right) at an EU summit in October 2022
Europe must learn to think much more in terms of power and must act as one bloc in the world, says Van Middelaar. In 2022, he founded the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics for that purpose, with the support of, among others, the French, German and Dutch government leaders.
But those leaders are still too cautious, says Van Middelaar. While the decisions that Europe will have to make if Trump is re-elected go very far. “Such as strengthening the arms industry and even closer cooperation within NATO. Are we able to support Ukraine’s struggle without American help, or if Trump says: you have to pay for our soldiers and our information?”
Rutte as voice of Europe?
Shapiro also says that Europe must learn to speak with one voice. “You shouldn’t all call the White House. The leaders must send a joint message.” Van Middelaar: “Who is going to talk to Trump? Who is going to ensure that our security interests with regard to Russia remain intact?”
ANPP Prime Minister Rutte meets President Trump at the White House in 2018
That could be French President Emmanuel Macron, but also Mark Rutte, says Van Middelaar. He hears that name more and more often as a possible new NATO boss, especially in connection with a possible return of Trump. “In that context, Rutte can play a very important role. Because of his ability to calm Trump down with some charm and psychological ingenuity.”
When Rutte visited the White House in 2019, he contradicted Trump when he said that it would be “positive” if there was no solution to the trade conflict that was going on at the time. But he could also allow himself a joke, says Van Middelaar. “Trump liked Rutte and that will be incredibly important if Trump is re-elected and the future of NATO is at stake.
Trump’s rhetoric alone endangers the alliance, Shapiro says. “If Trump, as president, says that the US no longer supports NATO, NATO will essentially cease to exist. Because NATO essentially promises that the US will help Europe if a crisis arises.”
2024-01-07 06:00:01
#Europe #prepare #Trump #security #stake
