Editorial of the “World”. Two images summarized the situation in Belarus, Sunday 23 August: on the one hand, that of the aerial view of the center of Minsk, again invaded by an impressive human tide of peaceful demonstrators; and on the other hand, that of the president, Alexander Lukashenko, dressed in black and a bulletproof vest, an assault rifle in his hand, cut off from the population.
Two weeks after the presidential election of August 9, with the grossly falsified result, the political blockage is total. The number of demonstrators on Sunday in the capital and in several other cities of the country was a test: it shows that despite the violent repression of the first days, popular mobilization remains very high. The bullying tactic didn’t work, at least not significantly. With remarkable courage, Belarusians continue to demand the departure of the president and free elections.
For his part, Lukashenko is trapped in a posture of denial, inventing threats that do not exist, such as that against his own security and the myth of NATO troops massed behind the border. He sees no way out of the dispute except for security; his government is invisible and he ostensibly relies on the police, to whom he promises “To end” with the protesters.
A third image could be added to the two previous ones: that of the human chain of solidarity organized on Sunday by the Lithuanians, on the 35 kilometers of the road which connects Vilnius to the Belarusian border. It symbolizes the challenge of the Belarusian crisis for the European Union (EU). The Twenty-Seven, through the democratic values they defend, can only stand in solidarity with such a massive and legitimate movement.
Stay firm
However, the EU wishes to avoid a repetition of the Ukrainian conflict, where the direct intervention of Russian forces has hampered the country’s progress since 2014 and paralyzed relations between Europe and Moscow. Both President Emmanuel Macron and European Foreign Minister Josep Borrell have made it clear in recent days: for them Belarus should not be a second Ukraine. The situation is different there. Unlike the Ukrainians, the Belarusian demonstrators do not ask to join the EU and refrain from any slogan hostile to Russia. Their demands are clear and circumscribed: release of political prisoners, resignation of President Lukashenko and organization of new elections.
Faced with Mr. Lukashenko’s refusal to speak to them, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and Mr. Macron have initiated a dialogue with the Russian President, Vladimir Poutin, to find a solution to the crisis , possibly through mediation by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which brings together the EU, Russia and Belarus. This de facto tutelage, granted to Moscow over Minsk, may be shocking. Realism justifies such attempts, however, on condition that you keep your eyes open: Mr Putin can talk perfectly with the EU, while helping the Belarusian regime to “stabilize” the situation under cover.
Faced with a new crisis on its borders, the EU must stand firm on the demand for the departure of Mr. Lukashenko and support the democratic aspirations of Belarusians, while avoiding falling into the traps set for it: direct intervention , the never-ending conflict or a compromise that actually allows Moscow to strengthen its grip on Belarus.
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