The next generation will buy mostly electric vehicles. This is good news for Tesla, as well as for many other electric car manufacturers, including some start-ups, and not so good for Chinese car manufacturers such as NIO.
This is clear from the forecast for sales of electric vehicles until 2040 to the American investment bank Piper Sandler. It forecasts sales and market share for almost all major car manufacturers worldwide.
According to the data, by 2030 45% of the sales of new cars will be on electric cars, and by 2040 – 94%. Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter predicts that electric cars will “swallow” the global automotive industry in 19 years.
It will have the largest market share Volkswagen, not Tesla. Potter estimates that Volkswagen will sell about 9.2 million electric vehicles in 2040, or 11.4% of the total.
Analyzer spore Tesla will have a 10.1% market share by 2040, selling about 8.2 million vehicles a year. In 2020, Tesla sold 500,000 electric vehicles.
Starting electric car manufacturers, as a group, are now expected to capture 11% of the market. The Chinese company NIO however, there will be less than a 1% share in 2040, according to Potter’s calculations.
NIO, XPeng and Li Auto, which have a combined market capitalization of about $ 130 billion, will sell just 2.1 million electric vehicles in total in 2040.
According to forecasts General Motors and Ford maintain their market shares, successfully navigating the transition to electric vehicles.
This will not be the case for Toyota however. Potter predicts a collapse in market share and a decline from about 11% today to only 4.3% by 2040.
By 2025, an 18% share of global electric car sales is forecast. About a year ago, analysts estimated that they were close to 10%.
According to a report Bloomberg New Energy Finance by 2040, 55% of total car sales globally will be at the expense of electric ones. Electric car sales will reach 11 million by 2025 (from 1.1 million in 2017) to 30 million in 2030, the report said.
By 2040, according to this forecast, 60 million electric cars will be sold annually and will make up 33% of the world’s car fleet.
One of the factors for this will be the fall in their prices. By 2024, the price of an electric car will be competitive with that of a conventional one.
Electric cars will also become cheaper to produce than those with an internal combustion engine. Contrary to Piper Sandler’s forecasts, Bloomberg believes that China will lead this transformation, and in 2025 the country will sell 50% of the total sales of electric vehicles in the world.
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