Goodbye, goodbye, goodbye, goodbye. Are we watching the last days of Donald Trump? The New York real estate agent, hotel manager, bankrupt, beauty pageant organizer, film extra, and reality TV star resigned as president two years ago; reluctantly, and equally reluctantly, the hard core of his followers saw him pull. On January 6, 2021, a few thousand of them stormed the Capitol in Washington, where Congress had met to nominate his competitor Joe Biden for president after the count.
The mob, including armed supporters of far-right militias, smashed windows, smashed furniture, stole souvenirs and dragged a gallows in search of the hated Democrats: Nancy Pelosi, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez. But they also threatened Republicans who saw them as traitors, especially Mike Pence, Trump’s running mate, who recognized Biden’s election. Not that he had any other choice, but Trump had urged him to veto it.
Ultimately, nine people died, including several police officers who committed suicide in the weeks following the storming of the Capitol. The uprising, like so much else, is dividing America: For many Republicans, Trump’s enthusiastic supporters have gone a bit too far. And since their leader was robbed of an electoral victory, this was a pro-democracy act. For Democrats, America was in danger of being overrun by armed fascists.
The committee delivered
Now, after 18 months and countless televised hearings with nearly 20 million viewers, a House of Representatives investigative committee has a Report of 845 pages introduced. She sheds light on the uprising, just in time before Republicans have a majority in the House on January 1.
The bottom line: “One man” was responsible for the riot, according to the committee, followed by all, and that man was, of course, Donald Trump. Without Trump, who incited the insurgents and even wanted to go personally to the Capitol, his own security personnel would not have stopped him if none of this had happened. Trump is guilty of conspiring against the United States; the committee recommended that the attorney general’s office prosecute him. Most Republicans see it differently: The committee delivered, criticized Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, a “made for TV production.”
Often pronounced dead
Will it really happen? And would this be the end of Trump as a potential presidential candidate in 2024? It was like this Washington Postthe real target of the committee, made up of seven Democrats and two Republicans, Adam Kinzinger and Liz Cheney, both longtime critics of Trump.
Trump has been declared dead so many times. And there are already investigations by the prosecutor. But a sentence? Trump is the Teflon par excellence. Like Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Silvio Berlusconi in Italy, Vladimir Putin in Russia or Voldemort in Harry Potter, he keeps coming back.
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It’s almost forgotten now, but Trump has been swept up in two currents: the backlash against former President Barack Obama, the first African-American in office who appeared to many conservatives as a far-left, albeit politically more conventional, Muslim Black Panther, and the backlash against the neocons, dyed-in-the-wool ex-Democrats who brought two unloved wars to America under George W. Bush.
His fans adore Trump as the returned Jesus, but to Republicans, despite all the words, the former longtime Democrat was just a means to an end. There were even rumors at the time that Trump was a submarine launched by Bill Clinton. But precisely because of his unorthodox performances, Trump brought voices to rural areas that felt arrogantly ignored by smart city politicians. He also allowed conservatives to fill the Supreme Earldom, the highest court in the United States, with anti-abortionists.
revolt against the government
Now that dark clouds are forming — nearly every Trump-backed candidate lost in midterm — the congressional by-election; Republicans are moving away from him, first neocons like Cheney, now nimble party leader Mitch McConnell. True, Trump still has 70 percent of the GOP behind him, but that’s a decline. Many would prefer a younger and more predictable candidate integrated into the party. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been treated like a new star since his election win, and he actually has a chance to lead the Republicans in the upcoming campaign.
If Trump is convicted, would he be allowed to run for president again? The constitution does not forbid it; it only stipulates that the president must be a Native American, age 35 or older, and live primarily in the country. Eugene Debs, leader of the Socialist Party in America before World War I, was sentenced to prison first as a union leader and then as a pacifist. He campaigned for the White House from his cell (unsuccessfully). Lyndon LaRouche, who had a criminal record, was also allowed to run. But it would be different if Trump were convicted of “insurrection”, i.e. rebellion against the government. The 14th amendment forbids traitors from becoming president.
No longer in red
Trump himself saw the White House more as an opportunity to bathe in applause and sell expensive tchotchkes to his supporters. More recently, he has launched NFTs, digital images in which he poses as a superhero with laser eyes. They cost a whopping $99 each and, he promised, should increase in value immensely.
He has otherwise used the presidency for high-priced flea deals, from deals with desert sheikhs to selling White House silver coins to coerce state visitors into staying at Trump-owned hotels. According to his tax assessments, which the House of Representatives released despite his protests, he has long gnawed hunger pangs – for a billionaire; but since he took office, he hasn’t been in the red financially.
The fall of America
The problem for the party now is that Trump will not quietly step down. The worst case scenario would be his candidacy as an independent. No US politician, not Ross Perot or even popular former President Teddy Roosevelt, has managed to get more than 30 percent this way, but Trump doesn’t care. He mainly wants to earn during the election campaign. For Republicans, however, such a painful split could be the first step towards their downfall.
That would also have drawbacks for Democrats. For many, Trump is the ideal opponent, a sort of “Mussolini 2.0” against which many supporters can be mobilized. Midterms proved that recently. Democrats warned that the end of America, the end of democracy, was even up for debate. This has brought a record number of voters to the polls, while the ruling party usually loses in mid-term. This would be repeated in 2024 at ten times the volume. DeSantis, with the smile of his son-in-law and the successful embrace of Hispanic voters, would be a much more dangerous adversary.
Two years is a long time
What about the “blob,” that Washington ragtag of officials, industry lobbyists, and political journalists that grew out of what Dwight D. Eisenhower called the military-industrial complex? The blob is not a fan of Trump, who has proven on paper that he is against military intervention. Indeed, Trump has also signed bombing operations in the Middle East.
In the war in Ukraine, however, US policy would be different with him, especially since the opposition in Ukraine, which is loyal to Putin, is part of his circle of trading partners. And to his supporters, Putin is the last upright Christian conservative leader against a seedy world where gays can marry and Marxist intellectuals run the newspapers. But two years is a long time – for Putin and for Trump,
