Introduction

The odds are stacked against Senate Democrats this fall, as they try to hang onto their razor-thin majority in November. Not only will they have to defend 22 incumbent seats, many in Republican-leaning states, but they will also have to offset the loss of West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, who announced his retirement from the Senate last year.

Montana

Democratic Senator Jon Tester Seeking Reelection

Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is seeking reelection for a fourth term in Montana, a state that President Biden isn’t expected to win in the general election. In 2020, Trump won the state by a 16-point margin. However, Tester is popular in the state, with approval ratings of about 61%, according to a Morning Consult poll conducted last year.

Last quarter, Tester outraised his GOP opponent Tim Sheehy, raising $5.5 million. However, he also spent more than he raised, approximately $7.2 million. Sheehy, who is the CEO of Bridger Aerospace, raised $2.5 million, with about $450,000 coming from personal loans.

Ohio

Sen. Sherrod Brown Defending Seat in a Swing State

Sen. Sherrod Brown is defending his seat in Ohio, a swing state that voted for Trump in 2020. Brown outraised the three Republicans hoping to challenge him in November, bringing in over $6.6 million. He ended the year with $14.6 million cash on hand.

Among the top fundraisers in the Republican primary was Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who raised nearly $813,000, and State Sen. Matt Dolan, who brought in about $358,000. However, Dolan spent considerably more than he raised, approximately $2.3 million. Brown’s fundraising advantage and approval ratings in the state pose challenges for the Republican contenders.

Arizona

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s Seat Up for Grabs in Battleground State

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona hasn’t confirmed whether she will seek reelection or not, but the filing deadline for candidacy is approaching. Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego, on the left, and Trump-backed Kari Lake, a former news anchor, are among the candidates vying for her seat.

Gallego, a former Marine, raised $3.3 million, while Lake raised $2.1 million. Sinema, despite raising $595,000 last quarter, spent more than she raised, leaving her with $10.6 million cash on hand. Sinema faces challengers from both the left and the right, with Arizona historically leaning more towards Republican candidates.

Nevada

Sen. Jacky Rosen Seeking Reelection in a Marginal State

Sen. Jacky Rosen is seeking reelection to a second term in Nevada, a state that has voted for Democratic nominees by small margins. Rosen outraised her Republican counterparts, raising $3.2 million last quarter and ending the year with $10.6 million cash on hand.

Sam Brown, a veteran, was the top fundraiser among the Republicans, raising $1.8 million, while Trump’s ambassador to Iceland, Jeff Gunter, raised just over $215,000. Rosen’s fundraising advantage, along with the state’s recent voting trends, gives her a competitive edge in the upcoming elections.

Wisconsin

Sen. Tammy Baldwin Seeking Third Term in Previously Democratic State

Sen. Tammy Baldwin is seeking reelection to a third term in Wisconsin, a previously Democratic state that voted for Trump in 2016. Last quarter, Baldwin raised $3 million, leaving her with $8 million cash on hand. However, a serious challenger has yet to emerge in the Republican primary.

Businessman Eric Hovde is expected to jump into the race and has the support of the Senate GOP campaign. His decision to enter could pose a strong challenge to Baldwin, who will be looking to secure her third term in a state that is likely to be a battleground in 2024.

Pennsylvania

Sen. Bob Casey Facing Businessman Dave McCormick

Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, seeking a fourth term, will likely face Republican businessman Dave McCormick, the former CEO of Bridgewater Associates. Pennsylvania has generally voted for Democratic presidential nominees, and last quarter, McCormick outraised Casey by approximately $2 million. Casey raised $3.6 million, while McCormick’s campaign brought in a total of $5.5 million, including $1 million contributed by McCormick himself.

Michigan

Rep. Elissa Slotkin Running for Senate

Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin is running for Senate to succeed Sen. Debbie Stabenow. Last quarter, Slotkin raised $2.8 million, leaving her with $6 million cash on hand. She has outraised her GOP opponents so far, and the Republican primary field is still taking shape.

Rep. Mike Rogers, backed by the Senate GOP campaign, is among the Republican candidates. However, businessman Sandy Pensler and former Rep. Peter Meijer are also vying for the nomination. Michigan, which has experienced shifts in party support in recent elections, will be a crucial battleground for both parties in 2024.

Texas and Florida

Long Shot Victories for Democrats in Republican Strongholds

Democrats are hoping for long shot victories in Texas and Florida, traditionally Republican strongholds. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is expected to face a tough challenge from two-term Republican Sen. Rick Scott in Florida. In Texas, Rep. Colin Allred is likely to be Sen. Ted Cruz’s Democratic challenger.

Scott, who contributed the majority of funding to his campaign last quarter, raised $4.7 million but spent nearly as much as he raised. Allred outraised Cruz by $4.8 million to $3.4 million. While Democrats face an uphill battle in both states, they remain determined to make inroads and improve their chances in traditionally red territories.