―In addition to host companies, there is also an increase in the desire for employees to participate, with reservations exceeding pre-coronavirus levels in some cases.―
We are entering the year-end party season for the first time since the new coronavirus was classified as Category 5 under the Infectious Disease Control Law in May. This is the first year-end party in about four years since restrictions due to the coronavirus pandemic have been completely lifted, and many people are looking forward to it, including those who have never had a drinking party at work for the first time or those who haven’t seen it in a long time.According to some surveys, the companies that are hosting the party, Employees’ desire to participate is increasing. The impact on the izakaya industry is likely to be large, as corporate year-end parties and New Year’s parties tend to have a large number of participants, and the cost per customer tends to be high.
●54% of companies will hold forget-me-not/New Year parties
According to the “2023 Year-End/New Year’s Party Questionnaire” survey conducted by Tokyo Shoko Research from October 2nd to October 10th among 4,747 companies nationwide, “We conducted this survey before the coronavirus pandemic, and we will also conduct it this time. 36.2% of the companies answered that they would hold a New Year’s party this season, and 18.2% of companies answered that they had not held one before the coronavirus pandemic, but will hold one this time. More than half (54.4%) said they would “implement.” When held at the same time last year, 38.6% of companies said they would hold a New Year’s party and were planning a New Year’s party, indicating a recovery in the number of Year’s Eve and New Year’s parties with the transition to Category 5 of the new coronavirus. .
●56% of people plan to participate/have intention to participate
On the other hand, there is a high possibility that the number of participants will increase this year.Gurunavi <2440> [東証Ｐ]According to a survey on the theme of “Year-end parties” that was conducted between November 2nd and November 4th among 1,000 members in their 20s to 60s across the country. 27.6% of people answered that they would “participate” in a related year-end party, and 28.3% said that they would “participate if it were held,” for a total of 55.9% of people who had plans or intentions to participate.
Many people seem to be feeling a lack of communication in the workplace due to remote work during the coronavirus pandemic, and this appears to be reflected in the numbers.
● Year-end party reservations are off to a good start
Reservations for year-end parties have already begun in earnest, and Chimney, which operates seafood izakaya “Hana no Mai” and other restaurants nationwide, <3178> [東証Ｓ]announced on November 24th that 189 izakaya brand stores, mainly directly managed stores “Hana no Mai” and “Sakanaya Dojo,” had a 20% increase in reservations (number of reservations) for December compared to 2019 as of the 22nd. It was announced that the level was significantly higher than before the coronavirus outbreak. The number of bookings has increased 2.7 times compared to the previous year, and it is said that more people are booking banquet courses for large groups than booking seats for private parties.
As can be seen from these figures, restaurants, especially the izakaya industry, are enjoying “year-end party demand” for the first time in about four years. On the other hand, there are other cost-increasing factors, such as the weakening yen, rising raw material prices due to the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and rising labor costs due to labor shortages. However, since the izakaya industry has faced difficult times due to the coronavirus pandemic, many companies are taking a conservative view of their earnings forecasts. It is important to pay attention to stocks that are currently performing well.
●Focus on izakaya chains that are currently doing well
Fujio Food Group Headquarters <2752> [東証Ｐ]operates the self-service set meal restaurant “Maido Ookini Shokudo” as its mainstay, as well as the izakaya “Kappougi” and “Kushiya Monogatari.” As of the third quarter of the fiscal year ending December 2023, domestic directly managed existing store sales increased by 14.9% compared to the same period last year. In October, same-store sales increased 3.7% compared to the same month last year, exceeding the previous year’s results for 19 consecutive months, and full-year operating profit is expected to be 557 million yen (compared to a deficit of 1,886 million yen in the previous year).
DD group <3073> [東証Ｐ]operates a variety of business formats, including izakaya, dining, and cafes, and has nearly 50 brands of izakaya alone, including “Warayakiya” and “Kyushu Netsuchuya.” Although trends in same-store sales for only izakaya restaurants are not disclosed, same-store sales for the restaurant business through October of the fiscal year ending February 2024 increased by 32.8% compared to the same period of the previous year. Although the decline was 10.6% compared to the same period in February 2020 before the coronavirus pandemic, in the second half the decline was in the single digits, with September being down 7.9% compared to the same month in 2019 and October being down 3.7%. The recovery trend is clear. It is also noteworthy that, in response to the recent recovery in sales, the company revised its full-year earnings forecast upward from 2.25 billion yen to 2.95 billion yen (6.3 times the previous year) at the same time as the first-half results were announced.
A.P. Holdings <3175> [東証Ｓ]is developing brands such as “Shijuhachi Gyoba” and “Yakitori Standard,” with “Tsukada Farm” as its mainstay. In the first half of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024, operating income and loss were significantly lower than the initial forecast, resulting in a deficit of 450 million yen, but sales exceeded the plan due to a recovery in the number of people and increased inbound demand. Same-store sales at domestic restaurants through October remained strong, increasing 38.6% year-on-year, and the company’s full-year forecast remains unchanged.
Torikizoku Holdings <3193> [東証Ｐ]is a major yakitori chain that operates “Torikizoku” nationwide. In the fiscal year ending July 2023, consolidated operating profit was 1,417 million yen (a deficit of 2,433 million yen in the previous fiscal year), returning to the black, and in the fiscal year ending July 2024, it was 1,861 million yen (31.3% compared to the previous fiscal year). % increase) and a significant increase in profit is expected. This fiscal year, Torikizoku’s same store sales are expected to increase 14% year on year (23% increase year on year in the first half, 7% increase in the second half), but are expected to increase 28.3% year on year until October. It remains above. It is also worth noting that the company changed its name to “Eternal Hospitality Group” on May 1, 2024, and plans to expand store openings in the United States and Asia.
SFP Holdings <3198> [東証Ｐ]is Create Restaurants Holdings, which operates “Isomaru Suisan”, “Toriyoshi”, Neo Taisei Sakaba, etc. <3387> [東証Ｐ]An affiliated pub chain. In addition to strong same-store sales centered on the mainstay Isomaru Suisan, inbound sales also steadily recovered, the first-half results exceeded plans, and at the same time as the first-half results were announced, the business forecast for the fiscal year ending February 2024 was announced. Consolidated operating income has been revised upward from 1 billion yen to 1.7 billion yen (754 million yen deficit in the previous year). Same-store sales were also strong, growing more than 20% in the second quarter.
Yoshix Holdings <3221> [東証Ｐ]focuses on the sushi izakaya “Yadaizushi” and operates low-priced izakaya “Nipachi” in the Kanto region and westward. Existing store sales continued to exceed the previous year’s results for 19 consecutive months through October, mainly at Yadai Sushi. Due to the current strong performance, when announcing the first half results, we upwardly revised the forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2024 from 1.243 billion yen to 1.58 billion yen (2.2 times the previous year’s increase) for consolidated operating income.
Kushikatsu Tanaka Holdings <3547> [東証Ｓ]is developing new businesses such as “Toritama” and “Yakiniku Kuruton” with “Kushikatsu Tanaka” as its core. Same-store sales for the fiscal year ended November 2023 remained strong, increasing 31.4% year-on-year through October. In the cumulative third quarter financial results announced in October, consolidated operating income was 561 million yen (a deficit of 181 million yen in the same period last year), but the progress rate against the full-year plan is at a high level of 82.5%. We are also taking on the challenge of expanding overseas again, opening our second TANAKA store in the United States in August. Preparations are underway to open a third store.
Watami <7522> [東証Ｐ]operates izakaya restaurants such as Torimero and Miraizaka. As the recovery from the coronavirus pandemic has been remarkable, at the same time as the first-half financial results were announced, the forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2024 was raised from 2.65 billion yen to 3.0 billion yen (2.0 times the previous year) for consolidated operating income, the second time this fiscal year. A correction has been made. In the izakaya business, same-store sales in October increased by 3.9% compared to the same month in 2019, of which banquet sales increased by 33.1% compared to the same month last year, which is a recovery higher than before the coronavirus pandemic and is expected to continue to perform well.
ten allied <8207> [東証Ｓ]is a long-established izakaya chain with restaurants such as “Tengu” and “Tengu Sakaba.” In the fiscal year ended March 31, 2024, same-store sales through September increased by 28.7% compared to the same period last year. In October, sales continued to increase by 12.5% compared to the same month last year, maintaining a double-digit increase. Although the first-half and full-year profit forecasts were revised downward in August, the consolidated operating loss was 10 million yen in the first-half results announced in November, exceeding the revised deficit of 36 million yen. The full-year forecast of 165 million yen (a deficit of 1,328 million yen in the previous fiscal year) remains unchanged.
Daisho <9979> [東証Ｓ]operates stores such as “Shoya”, “Nihonkaishoya”, and “Yaruki Chaya” nationwide. In the fiscal year ending August 2023, the consolidated operating profit/loss was in the red of 461 million yen, but it has been in the black since March due to a recovery in food and drink demand, and will be in the black in the second half. In the fiscal year ending August 2024, the company is on a steady recovery path, with same-store sales increasing 17.6% year-on-year through October. This fiscal year, the company expects to return to the black for the full year with operating income of 750 million yen.
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2023-11-30 10:30:00
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