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Covid-19: The vaccine business drops in 2022 due to lower demand for booster doses | companies

Sales forecasts for Covid-19 vaccines from large laboratories in 2022 are lower than expected. The consulting firm Airfinity – a benchmark for the sector – has just lowered its business estimate for Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Janssen and Novavax. Yes at the beginning of the year the calculation indicated a joint turnover of 75,000 million eurosyesterday the firm cut it by 20%, to 64,200 million, so it expects demand to stay even with last year, the first with this type of product and which was administered massively in rich countries and middle income.

The difference is due to the fact that Airfinity has detected a lower demand than expected in booster punctures for this product that has immunized hundreds of millions of people. Matt Linley, director of research at the firm, says the market has gone from high demand and limited supply to lower demand, with more choice and a reluctance of stocks to get more injections.

“Currently, the world has a stock of 2.3 billion doses of vaccine waiting to be used,” he explains, as many low- and middle-income countries struggle for those supplies. “Since the omicron variants cause less severe disease, people do not have an appetite for more doses,” explains Linley, who details that data from the third and fourth dose programs in Israel and Chile show that absorption decreased by a 25% for the reinforcement and 50% for the fourth puncture, something that “will probably be replicated in other countries.”

Pfizer and its partner BioNTech will control 58% of the market by 2022 (see chart), with sales forecast for the first quarter of 11,205 million and 33,430 million for the full year. Moderna will follow with a 30% share and 17,175 million at the end of the year. Less relevant will be the sales of AstraZeneca (5% share), Janssen (5%) and Novavax (2%).

Vaccination rates have fallen worldwide, according to this consultancy, and the demand for vaccines will reach 6,000 million doses (levels similar to last year) and between 2,000 and 4,000 million in 2023.

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