The corona virus has frozen the world in no time. The consequences are dramatic for people and the economy. It hit the tourism sector particularly hard: Hotels remain empty, sights closed, planes on the ground. Lufthansa was forced to cancel 95 percent of the flights.
But the misery of the airlines is nothing compared to what the cruise companies are currently experiencing: worldwide, the ships are at least until the end of April, probably longer. All trips are being terminated or have already been canceled because almost all ports have been closed. Only 6,300 passengers are still on board a total of eight ships that cannot dock, as governments fear that the passengers may spread the corona virus in the respective countries. Sometimes the passenger ships are disparaged as “floating petri dishes”.
Ships wander the seas
Government concerns are not unfounded: the Australian authorities launched a criminal investigation this week to determine why passengers on Sydney’s Ruby Princess were allowed to disembark, despite the fact that some of them had flu-like symptoms. More than 600 people on the ship were later tested positive for the corona virus, eleven have died since then – more than a fifth of previous deaths in Australia. The New South Wales police commissioner accused cruise company Carnival, one of the largest big players in the industry, of violating biosecurity laws and allowing the virus to infiltrate Australia.
The fate of the “Ruby Princess” is not an isolated case. There have also been confirmed Covid 19 cases on several sister ships. The Holland America Lines “Zaandam” had previously docked in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. There, too, passengers had tested positive for the corona virus. The shipping company had announced that several passengers had died, some in mortal danger.
Share prices plummeted
The cruise industry has repeatedly managed to recover from catastrophes in recent years, even to emerge stronger from them. The capsizing of the Costa Concordia off the Tuscan coast in 2012 or various norovirus outbreaks on the high seas – all setbacks were short-lived. The basic concept of success – more and bigger and bigger ships – was never questioned by the passengers. The long-haul ships were too practical, too comfortable.
But the idea of being quarantined on a cruise ship for days, possibly weeks, is a horror even for cruise fans. Some travel industry experts fear that the cruise vacation business will never recover from the corona virus. This can also be seen on the stock exchanges: shares in cruise lines have sunk like a landslide. Carnival Corporation’s securities plunged 80 percent between February and the peak of the panic in mid-March.
Stocks caught up a bit this week, up up 60 percent after the company secured $ 6.25 billion in bailout funding and Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund revealed it had an 8.2 percent stake had built on the company.
“There will be great offers for consumers”
But experts are unsure whether that was a good investment: “People say they have done a great business and will make a fortune. That may be true, but I do not see that cruises will recover quickly,” says approximately Ross Klein, professor at the Maritime Research Unit at Memorial University of Newfoundland, in conversation with the British Guardian.
He believes cruise companies need to work hard to regain consumer confidence. “There will be some great offers for consumers to convince them to book a cruise,” he said. “But it will be a difficult task to convince people that cruise ships are safe.”
Klein is convinced that former customers will be regained with hefty discounts. “But the industry is set to grow, bigger and bigger ships are coming and it will take new customers to fill them. It will be extremely difficult to convince people who have never taken a cruise now Make a cruise – no matter how much money you offer them “.
Distance on the high seas? Difficult
Whether the cruise companies are recovering from the recent setbacks also depends on how the handling of the virus is changing. So far, most nations have followed a restrictive course: borders are being closed, events are canceled, and there are strict bans on contacts. Conditions that are not foreseen in the candy-colored cruise world.
“Cruise ships are by definition a crowd of people crammed together in a tight space, and there isn’t much that can be structurally changed,” said analyst Robert Cole. Above all, the ban on contact, i.e. a safety distance of one and a half to two meters, should become an unsolvable challenge.
In addition, a third of the cruise passengers are 60 years or older. This age group has the highest risk of developing Covid-19 seriously or even dying from the virus. In plain language: Long lines at the buffet, when arriving and departing or waiting for the tour groups at the harbor should not exist until there is a vaccine against the corona virus. And that can take a while. Experts estimate that a vaccine will not be available to the masses until at least one year from now, possibly only in 18 months.
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