Saturday February 29, 2020
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In Germany, the number of people with whom the corona virus is detected is increasing. An expert from the Berlin Charité believes that sooner or later a large part of the population will become infected with the pathogen. The decisive point is in what period.
According to an expert, high numbers of infections with the new corona virus can be expected in Germany. “It will probably infect 60 to 70 percent, but we don’t know at what time,” said virologist Christian Drosten of the Berlin Charité. “It can take two years or even longer.” The infection process only becomes problematic if it occurs in a compressed, short time. “That is why the authorities are doing everything they can to detect and slow down outbreaks.”
According to Drosten, numbers from China indicate that it could be like the great flu pandemics of 1957 and 1968. “I don’t think it will be like the Spanish flu in 1918.” The pattern with a decrease in numbers in summer and a recurrence afterwards could be similar.
Germany is excellently prepared for the lung disease Covid-19. “If the whole pandemic happens before the virus becomes a common cold virus and no longer stands out, it can be dealt with in two years,” said Drosten. “If it is a year, it will be much harder because we have a lot more cases at the same time.” Nevertheless, he warned: It is difficult to predict the number of therapy beds needed in the intensive care units, but “if we do nothing now, they may not be enough”.
Infection risk is currently small
The virus multiplies in the throat, the virologist explained. While an infected person speaks or coughs, he releases droplets. “They fly maybe 1.5 meters and fall relatively quickly to the ground. It is the inhalation of such a cloud that in most cases infects you.” At the moment, the risk of having a Covid 19 disease when scratching the throat is “incredibly small” in Germany. “I believe that we can keep the virus here with us on a very, very small flame, perhaps even on such a small flame that we hardly notice it in everyday life,” said Drosten. “But that doesn’t mean that it’s gone.” You then have to continue to look for it.
To avoid the spread of the coronavirus, the Robert Koch Institute recommends a few rules of conduct:
- Wash hands thoroughly with soap several times a day for 20 to 30 seconds.
- Cough and sneeze in the elbow to keep your hands clean. Keep your distance from other people.
- Keep hands away from face, refrain from shaking hands.
- In public institutions, dry hands with a paper towel if possible.
- Ventilate regularly in the office and at home.
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In the meantime, the Federal Government’s crisis team met in Berlin to discuss further precautions against the virus. Among other things, criteria for dealing with large events such as trade fairs are to be developed. This should help the competent local authorities to decide on measures. Another topic is the availability of protective equipment such as breathing masks and special suits, which are in high demand worldwide.
The crisis team has already launched the first measures: For example, air passengers who come with machines from South Korea, Japan, Iran and Italy should also provide information on their accessibility after landing. This already applies to direct flights from China. Such “exit cards” are intended to enable quick contact if it turns out that someone was infected on board.
35 new infections in the district of Heinsberg
In Germany, the number of infections recorded rose to 53 this Friday, according to the Robert Koch Institute, mainly in the federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia and Baden-Württemberg. Other confirmed infections were reported throughout the day. The federal states of Bavaria, Rhineland-Palatinate, Hesse and Hamburg and Schleswig-Holstein are also affected.
In the severely affected district of Heinsberg in North Rhine-Westphalia alone, the number of infected people rose to 35 by Friday afternoon. A couple there is being treated in the hospital. All others were not admitted to hospital, said District Administrator Stephan Pusch. The course of the disease is comparatively mild for them.
A 47-year-old man from Gangelt and his 46-year-old wife will therefore continue to be treated in the Düsseldorf University Hospital. The man had been identified as the first patient with the new Sars-CoV-2 virus in NRW. According to the university clinic, he is still in critical condition, but this has stabilized somewhat. Where he got infected is still unclear. The “patient zero” may never be found, said Pusch. To the knowledge of the district administrator, no children are among the 35 infected so far. However, the test results of children from a kindergarten are still pending, in which the 46-year-old infected works as a teacher.
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