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DEBATE
Norwegian voters are on their way out of corona mode and are slowing down support for the Conservatives. The latest poll indicates that it is the barrier that will determine who gets power after the next election.
External comments: This is a debate article. Analysis and position are the writer’s own.
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Voters’ party preferences is about to return to the more normal. In other words, a situation where it is completely in the blue (possibly in the red) which parties will be in government after the election next autumn. The big stepping stone is the barrier limit of four percent. This is shown by the political barometer for August prepared by Ipsos for Dagbladet.
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Now lies both Venstre (3.1 percent) and KrF (3.5) below the threshold, a trend that has lasted since October 2018. On the left, SV goes back 1.2 to 7.1 percent, while MDG stands almost still at 5.8 and Red rises 1.3 to 4.4 percent. Of these five parties, only SV is stably above the threshold.
Background of the measurement shows that the corona crisis mobilized many voters and that these largely supported the Conservatives. In several polls, the Conservatives were for a time the country’s largest party. Now many voters have returned to the couch and the uncertainty, and that weakens the Conservatives. It is still high with a listing of 24.3 percent, but there is a decline of 0.8.
The Labor Party is largest party with a support of 24.8, finely ahead of the Conservatives. But the Labor Party also has a slight decline (0.2). Such differences are not significant, and in reality the two parties are equal.
This is a crucial reason why support for possible coalition or coalition parties is so important when it comes to government power. On the bourgeois side, the FRP has a slight increase to 11.7, but is far from top form.
Was it a choice tomorrow, the current government would only get 48 of 169 seats in the Storting. If we add Frp, the number comes up to 69, but it is still a long way to a majority in parliament. The magic number is 85 seats. If Norway is to continue to have a bourgeois government, voters must create a very special political situation. They must move KrF and Venstre over the barrier limit and lower the small parties on the left to a life below four percent.
On the measurement from Ipsos, the Labor Party, the Socialist People’s Party, the Socialist People’s Party, the MDGs and the Red Party have a total of one hundred seats, ie an overwhelming majority. But that does not mean that Jonas Gahr Støre can prepare for a parade march to power, not to mention forming a majority government. Red and MDG live dangerously and commute above and below the barrier limit. In this month’s poll, a red-green government with the Labor Party, the Socialist People’s Party and the Socialist People’s Party will receive 82 seats, which will not hold a majority.
Now it is divided and ruled
Besides, is not such a red-green government of course. Ap-Jonas would rather have a coalition of three parties, but Trygve Slagsvold Vedum is not as keen on it. He prefers to have SV in the hallway. But SV is not a plasticine party that can easily be shaped by others. The party will make tough demands, especially when it comes to climate policy. Power without a completely different climate policy than today does not tempt SV.
The situation is thus stably chaotic. Or SNAFU as they say in the US: Situation normal all fucked up
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