The analyzes of the corona development in Germany have recently become more and more optimistic from the perspective of health experts. After all, the number of new cases of infection per 100,000 inhabitants is falling According to Tagesspiegel figures Continuous since the end of April, the number of corona intensive care patients is now clear and the number of people who die from or in connection with an infection is slightly.
Germany
- Population: 83.0 million
- Seven-day incidence: 37
- Positive rate: 5.8 percent (May 26)
- Intensivpatienten: 2450
- 7-day mean deaths: 149
- Vaccinated residents: 43 percent (fully vaccinated: 17 percent)
The reasons for this are the meanwhile tightened measures to contain the pandemic and, above all, the vaccination campaign. But how is Germany doing with its numbers in Europe? A comparison with the most populous countries in the Central European neighborhood provides information.
It is noticeable how different the seven-day incidences are, even in neighboring countries. The vaccination rates, however, are not very far apart – with one known exception: Great Britain. However, it is also the British who are currently causing some concern due to the Indian virus variant.
The UK is some of the few countries in Europe where the seven-day incidence is increasing, if only slightly. Because the incidence in Germany is falling continuously, the curves could soon cross each other. “We have the worst behind us and have come to the end of this difficult time,” said SPD health expert Karl Lauterbach at the weekend. But not only Germany can raise its hopes.
France
- Population: 67.1 million
- Seven-day incidence: 95
- Positive rate: 3.5 percent (May 24)
- Intensive care patients: around 3000
- 7-day mean deaths: 115
- Vaccinated residents: 37 percent (fully vaccinated: 16 percent)
France is one of only a few countries in Europe with an incidence close to 100. This is mainly due to the fact that the country had to recover from a much higher third corona wave. While the number of new infections in Germany peaked at almost 30,000 at the end of April, in France it was far more than 100,000 in mid-April – the western German neighbor has around 16 million fewer inhabitants.
After the incidence was 477 in mid-April, it has been falling continuously since then and was 79 in the past week. After a brief increase to 100, the incidence is now falling again.
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The number of positive tests compared to the total number of tests, the so-called positive rate, was recently even lower than in Germany. This suggests that the decline in the number of infections is happening faster in France than in Germany. However, significantly more tests are carried out in France (an average of around 300,000 per day) than in Germany (an average of around 170,000 per day), which means that the rate is less subject to fluctuations.
France and Germany are similar in terms of the number of deaths over the past seven days. The 115 other corona deaths in France and 149 in Germany are at a similar level in terms of the number of residents.
However, an even faster recovery can be expected in Germany. Because: The number of corona intensive care patients is significantly higher in France at around 3,000. In Germany there are now only 2450, which means that the forecast value of the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (Divi) is well below the forecast. In the model, around 2500 intensive care patients were only forecast for mid-June.
The fact that the situation in Germany is a little more relaxed than in France is also due to the different progress of the vaccination campaign. While roughly the same number of people in both countries already have full vaccination protection, Germany is ahead with 43 percent of first vaccinations compared to the 37 percent in France.
Since the first vaccination already protects against severe courses of the Covid 19 disease, the number of corona intensive care patients and deaths in Germany should be less fluctuating in the future.
Italy
- Population: 60.4 million
- Seven-day incidence: 39
- Positive rate: 1.8 percent (May 27)
- Intensivpatienten: 1643 (20. Mai)
- 7-day mean deaths: 117
- Vaccinated residents: 38 percent (fully vaccinated: 19 percent)
Italy hit the third corona wave even earlier than France and Germany, in March. After rising to 269 at the end of the month, it has been falling continuously since then. Since the end of April, the decline in the number of infections in Italy and Germany has even been fairly parallel.
The seven-day incidence is now also at a comparable level. The situation is similar with corona intensive care patients and deaths, in each case in relation to the population.
In Italy, on the other hand, the proportion of positive tests in the total number of tests, the positive rate, is significantly lower. In Italy it was most recently only a third of the value currently published in Germany by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). However, this is also due to the fact that, as in France, significantly more tests have recently been carried out in Italy (an average of around 230,000 per day).
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The vaccination rate in Italy is comparable to that in France, but is below that in Germany. It is interesting that the same number of first and second vaccinations have been carried out in Italy so far. This is due to a different policy in the vaccination campaign.
While Germany has switched to giving as many people as possible basic immunity that protects them from a severe course of Covid 19 disease, Italy is vaccinating its citizens completely as quickly as possible. Incidentally, this is exactly what Spain is doing, which also has 19 percent first and second vaccinations.
Great Britain
- Population: 66.7 million
- Seven-day incidence: 32
- Positive rate: 0.3 percent (May 26)
- Intensivpatienten: 743 (28. Mai)
- 7-day mean deaths: 9
- Vaccinated residents: 58 percent (fully vaccinated: 37 percent)
Britain is special in two ways. On the one hand, the influence of the well-advanced vaccination campaign is reflected in the corona numbers in northwestern Europe – which certainly has to do with independence as a result of leaving the European Union (EU). On the other hand, the British are always bothered by new virus variants, such as the Indian one.
The seven-day incidence is probably higher due to the mutant from India. In early January, the UK recorded an incidence of 630. With a strict lockdown and early catapult start of the vaccination campaign, it quickly fell below 100 by the end of February.
When the third wave started in Germany, the numbers in Great Britain slowly but steadily decreased. The temporary lowest value was reached in mid-May at 20, a month after it opened extensively.
For the first time since the end of April, the number of new infections every day rose to more than 3,000 last week, and even to more than 4,000 in one day. An advisor to British Prime Minister Boris Johnson sees the slight growth as the beginning of a possible next wave.
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But, with all caution, the other key figures continue to develop very well in Great Britain compared to the rest of Europe and also to Germany. While the incidence is at a similar level, the number of deaths with nine corona deaths on a weekly average is very low – in Germany there are 149.
This number results from the almost three quarters lower number of intensive care patients in Great Britain compared to Germany, which continues to decline slightly. The British continue to do a lot of testing, with almost a million smears a day most recently. Only 0.3 percent of them were positive.
The main reason for the very good development, however, is the vaccination campaign, as mentioned at the beginning. 58 percent of the British have now been vaccinated at least once, and more than a third have already been temporarily completely immunized against the corona virus.
Lauterbach had predicted an increase in the UK
The latter figure is interesting because, as in Italy and Spain, it says something about the politics of the vaccination campaign. Great Britain is betting on vaccinating as many people as possible first. This ensures that the majority of the most vulnerable people can already be booked as completely immunized.
Health expert Lauterbach predicted weeks ago that the numbers in Great Britain would rise again slightly. At the time, he said that in Great Britain it depends on whether the vaccination rate can quickly rise to well over 60 percent. That is not the case yet. “If the Indian variant spreads faster, the number of cases could rise again in some regions,” said Lauterbach.
With the cautious all-clear in this country, the SPD politician was also right: “In Germany we will probably be lucky and make ends meet. We will probably be spared from widespread use because we do not have as many people arriving from India as Great Britain. ”At the moment, the Indian variant only accounts for two percent of all cases in Germany.
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