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Commodity Prices For 2022: Decrease Expected for 2024 and 2025 – Expert Analysis

While the year 2022 was characterized by a sharp increase in commodity prices, last year already brought a reduction.

For example, electricity prices, which were hovering around 300 euros per megawatt hour on the stock market a year ago, are now at 93 euros, and gas and coal are also becoming cheaper. The price of the annual gas contract in the Netherlands fell by 64 percent, the price of coal lost 29 percent. And the discounting is apparently not ending.

“At EGÚ Brno, we expect a decrease at least for the years 2024 and 2025. The total costs of purchasing natural gas, but also electricity, should also decrease. The drop in the price of the commodity outweighs the need to increase the prices of regulated cost components,” Michal Macenauer, director of strategy at the energy consulting company EGÚ Brno, told SZ.

Both wheat and corn fall

However, they are not the only commodities that have fallen – the prices of corn and wheat, for example, have also fallen. Overall, the Bloomberg Commodity Index for last year recorded a decline of 12 percent.

“The drop in cereals such as corn and wheat is a big surprise,” XTB analyst Jiří Tyleček told ČTK. It is precisely the prices of key agricultural commodities that are at pre-crisis prices, according to an earlier statement by the head of the agricultural holding JTZE, Jan Šimek. But it hasn’t shown up in stores yet. “The impact of the agricultural commodity, in this case wheat, on the final price is small. I can’t say whether food retailers or retailers are more to blame for the remaining price increases, I don’t see it,” Šimek told SZ earlier.

Nickel became cheaper, copper went up

In the group of industrial metals, nickel showed the highest losses. Its price fell by 44 percent last year to $16,900 per ton. Aluminum lost 5.6 percent.

Czech drivers also noticed the discount due to the drop in the price of Brent North Sea oil, which lost ten percent of its value year-on-year. Gasoline is only 22 shillings per liter cheaper year-on-year, but diesel on average already costs 50 crowns less than last year.

Gold on the record

Conversely, on the opposite side of the spectrum stands iron ore or copper. It went up by 2.7 percent last year. In food, the prices of cocoa, sugar and Arabica coffee went up, and gold also did well. Its price rose 14 percent last year to 2,075 a troy ounce, approaching a record high.

2024-01-01 09:30:24
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