“Collective immunity, that will probably never happen”, warn American scientists. Immunity is when the virus stops spreading: because people are vaccinated or because they have been exposed to the virus. The virus can no longer find enough hosts to develop. This summer in the United States, it is estimated that half of the population will be immune : either because she will have been vaccinated completely, or because she will have encountered the virus.
The number of people who have been infected is very high: 33 millions. Joe Biden took the gamble of 70% of people vaccinated, but it’s 70% of adults (not the entire population). At first, scientists estimated that herd immunity would be achieved around 60 to 70% of the population. And at first they believed in it, it seemed achievable. Scientists no longer believe it.
It should be remembered that the first vaccines were authorized in December. This is when we started to hear about variants, starting with what we called the “English variant”, much more contagious than the original virus. The discourse began to change among scientists, who thought that collective immunity would be more complicated to achieve.
Mathematically, the more contagious a virus, the more it takes a large number of immunized people, we went from 60 to 70% to 80 or 90%.
Strong reluctance in the United States
This means that you have to convince practically the entire population of a country, in this case all Americans. However, vaccination centers are starting to be deserted in the United States. According to the authorities, 30% of the population is fully vaccinated (two doses for Pfizer and Moderna or one dose for Johnson and Johnson). You have 33 million people who have been infected (10% of the population). That’s 40% of the population. We will not double this proportion.
However, other countries should not prepare for the same observation: never achieve collective immunity. Because in the United States, reluctance is strong, which is hopeless for American scientists. This is the country where the main vaccines have been developed, where it was most quickly distributed and yet the country where the reluctance is the most important. It’s a bit early to say it but France looks on the same trends as in the United States. We’ll see…
20 to 40 years before the virus died out
American scientists warn: living in a country without collective immunity and which lifts restrictions, that means, punctually, new homes. And the dead. It may take 20 to 40 years before the virus died out. This is why at the moment there are original operations aimed at young people. You get vaccinated, and you have free donuts, or beers, and even cash. It may sound funny, it’s also a bit sad to come to this.
It should be remembered that the more the virus circulates, the more chances it is left to mutate. Anthony Fauci, the epidemic gentleman in the country now says: “Forget this collective immunity, vaccinate as many people as possible and as quickly as possible to protect the most vulnerable people “.
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