Climate Change and Turbulence: Causes, Effects and Safety Measures on Flights

Jakarta –

Later case turbulence in Indonesia is increasingly widespread. It is even predicted that turbulence will become more frequent as global temperatures increase.

Reported by USA Today, Sunday (11/6/2023), according to experts, turbulence will get worse and this trend is likely to continue due to climate change.

What is the cause? turbulence?

Turbulence itself is divided into several types, as well as several reasons for its occurrence, the following are the divisions:

• Mountain wave turbulence, as the name suggests, occurs when the wind hits a mountain. That is why there are frequent shocks when flying over the mountains.
• Convective Turbulencegenerally associated with storms and caused by rising warm air.
• Clear air turbulence, can be caused by a number of factors and is generally more difficult to predict than the other two types. But this turbulence is also the most likely to occur on a plane. That’s because this type is more difficult to predict, so it’s harder to avoid.

Does climate change make turbulence getting worse?

According to Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Reading, there is no clear data on how climate change is affecting Mountain wave turbulence or Convective turbulence. But the turbulence is manifold Clear air turbulence risk of becoming more frequent and intense.

“Temperatures are increasing because of climate change. The more turbulence the atmosphere is, the more turbulence there will be in the atmosphere,” Williams said.

Thomas Guinn, chair of applied aviation science at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, agrees.

“Turbulence will tend to become more frequent and more intense with climate change,” said Guinn.

Both Williams and Guinn show that severe turbulence actually rises higher than light turbulence.

A recent study by Williams showed that severe turbulence increased by 149 percent, in comparison turbulence mild which is only 59 percent. However, severe turbulence is likely to still be extremely rare.

“The total amount of turbulence is very small, not even the 0.1 percent that has severe turbulence right now, that’s very small,” Williams said.

Even if the data shows severe turbulence is increasing, Williams said it would not be experienced by passengers very often.

“A 149 percent increase, that’s between doubling and tripling. You can take 0.1 percent and multiply it. It’s still only 0.2 or 0.3%,” explained Williams.

Seasons of turbulence also shift with climate change. Right now, turbulence clear air turbulence more common in winter, but also starts to occur in the warm season.

“In the summer in the future, the amount of turbulence clear air turbulence will be as frequent as it is this winter,” Williams said.

is turbulence would be very dangerous?

Williams explained, that if severe turbulence increases, it simply changes status from something that happens very rarely to something that rarely happens. If the plane encounters severe turbulence, passengers can generally stay safe as long as they properly buckle up.

“If you are wearing a seat belt, the chances of getting hurt during turbulence are very small,” Guinn also added.

Williams agrees that ordinary passengers can stay safe in turbulence as long as they wear their seat belts. But the risk of worsening will actually occur for flight attendants.

“I think about 80% of the injuries that happen to flight attendants,” he said,

However, he added, that along with the more sophisticated forecasts turbulence and aircraft technology, then turbulence will have less and less effect on flight.

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(wks/wsw)