Christian Drosten: “Mobile phone apps offer a real perspective”

Updated April 3, 2020, 5:08 p.m.

In the fight against the spread of the novel corona virus, the exit restrictions in Germany continue to exist, with serious consequences for the economy and social life. In the latest episode of the NDR podcast “Coronavirus Update”, Christian Drosten reviews a new study from Oxford that examines the effectiveness of mobile phone apps. These could obviously make a decisive contribution to returning to normal life.

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Already on Tuesday, the “Corona Virus Update” was all about the use of mobile phone data, Professor Christian Drosten had described the use of apps in the fight against the corona pandemic as scientifically effective and sensible.

Now there is a new study by the English Oxford Big Data Institute, which seems to prove that the spread of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and the associated respiratory disease COVID-19 could be significantly reduced without the help of cell phone apps entire population must be put under a curfew.

The most up-to-date figures were used in the study, a group of scientists led by Professor Christophe Fraser calculated that 46 percent of all infections would happen before the contagious person showed any symptoms of the disease. A quarantine with the onset of symptoms is often too late, infected people can unsuspectingly infect others before illness and isolation even begin.

Isolation measures could be initiated earlier using an app

It often takes too much time until tests are initiated, the test results arrive and contact persons are finally identified by the health authorities. Even in combination with exit restrictions, the study said that the spread of the epidemic could not be completely stopped by the case-tracking measures, Drosten reported.

“Then something else is included in the calculation, namely the time that is achieved when using an app,” the virologist continued: “Here, a hypothetical app is devised. This app can record the symptoms at the onset of symptoms.” The user gives the app his symptoms, the app sends the data directly to a laboratory, and a test is initiated. In the next step, in the event of a positive test using Bluetooth data, the app could determine which people the sick person had contact with and warn them so that they can also be isolated and tested.

At least 60 percent of the population would have to participate

According to the study, the app could take over part of the work of the health authorities and speed up these processes significantly. “All these parameters were fed into the model,” Drosten reported: “You can say briefly if the epidemics were as fast as they were in Wuhan at the start and if about 60 percent of the population took part, ie would install an app, and about 60 percent of those who are informed that they should stay at home actually stay at home, then you could lower the R0 below 1. That’s amazing. “

R0 is the basic reproductive number, which tells how many people infect an infected person on average. If R0 is less than 1, the number of infected people decreases and the spread of the epidemic comes to a halt. However, there are also restrictions, Drosten continued. The speed of spread in Europe, for example, is currently greater than it was in Wuhan.

Therefore, in Europe or especially in Germany, more than 60 percent of the population would have to download the app to achieve this success. According to the study, another option would be to speed up the app’s procedure even more, for example by classifying people with symptoms directly in the middle of an infection wave as positive and asking them and their contact persons to quarantine without a test.

App could be a way out of the exit restrictions

According to the study, the widespread use of such an app could be more effective than a complete lockdown or a switch between exit restrictions and normal life over a longer period of time.

“This is a real perspective in this currently desperate discussion about how we can get out of these measures and what we will do next,” said Drosten: “And I am already fascinated by the idea that such an app especially if many would participate, but would already have such an instrument to achieve a completely different level of sophistication in the control. “

This could enable a return to normal life. Schools could be taught again, businesses could start work. “But not all at all times,” continued Drosten. After all, only the people who received a warning on their smartphone would have to isolate themselves, while everyone else could do their mostly normal activities. “At least that’s a very interesting model that you shouldn’t refuse,” said the virologist.

A European Corona app is currently in the test phase and could be available for download in mid-April. And may soon become an important factor in the corona crisis.

Professor Dr. Christian Drosten is head of the Institute of Virology at the Berlin Charité and one of the leading virus researchers in Germany. The 48-year-old is considered a co-discoverer of the SARS virus. Immediately after the SARS pandemic in 2003, he developed a test for the newly discovered virus, for which he was awarded the Federal Cross of Merit in 2005. In the current Corona crisis, the native of Emsland is in demand as a conversation partner, he provides information on the current situation on a daily basis.