China’s “compound” challenge to the Bank of China: it is repeating the Soviet Union in the 1960s-News-Rti Central Radio
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Time: 2023-08-30 12:01 News Citation: Interview Writer and Editor: Chen Lin Xinghong China is facing multiple challenges such as real estate collapse, foreign capital leaving, youth unemployment, etc. The senior officials of the domestic Bank of China believe that China’s economic development and the Soviet Union in the 1960s Similarly, it is entering an “era of mediocrity”, and it is difficult to perform brilliantly. The picture shows the scene of Shanghai. (Pixabay)
Since the beginning of this year, China has faced problems such as deflation crisis, real estate thunderstorms, and rising youth unemployment. The Bank of China, which has a presence in China, is increasingly pessimistic about China’s future economic development. Some Bank of China executives believe that China’s economic development, like the Soviet Union in the 1960s, is entering an “era of mediocrity”, and it is difficult to perform brilliantly again. Moreover, Taiwanese businessmen in China continue to leave. The future layout in China will be more cautious. The development in Southeast Asia will be more complete.
In the past, many National Banks believed that China’s huge economic system would surpass the United States and become the world’s largest economy. The more pessimistic.
Dong Ruibin, chairman of Heku Financial Holdings, who was born as a general economics scholar, pointed out that China’s local debt is estimated to be as high as RMB 94 trillion, accounting for 75% of China’s GDP of more than RMB 120 trillion. When the proportion of GDP is 25%, it will be three times higher, so the problem is more serious and the solution is more difficult. Dong Ruibin also believes that although there is no way to solve the local debt this time, if the central government helps the local debt repayment and uses foreign exchange deposits or U.S. government bonds as guarantees, international investors will question China’s national bonds in the future. Taiwanese businessmen are gradually withdrawing from China, and Hekujin will also make long-term plans for its layout in China in the future.
Chen Maoqin, the general manager of Yushan Gold, said that China is facing four major challenges, including the housing market bubble, local debt problems, foreign trade recession, and Sino-US trade and technology confrontation. Since none of them have been resolved, China’s economic development has entered an “era of mediocrity.” , That is to say, after experiencing rapid growth, it has evolved into the current situation without finding a second curve or a new growth engine, just like the Soviet Union back then, it is difficult to perform brilliantly again. Chen Maoqin said: “(Original sound) In other words, during the period of rapid growth, it did not solve the problems very well, but continued to accumulate problems. Then after a period of rapid growth, it will enter into a phenomenon of relatively mediocre development. This is the case in the Soviet Union. In the 1960s, there was a very typical era of mediocrity. Then we think that mainland China is very likely to have entered an era of mediocrity, but it is difficult to perform brilliantly again. Or the other way around, if he does not handle the changes in the environment well, he may enter even worse. Good sign. 』
Huang Nanzhou, chairman of Yushan Financial Holdings, also said that Yushan Bank will be more cautious in its layout in China in the future. It is an inevitable development to shift its focus to Southeast Asia. It is also applying for a representative office in Malaysia. In the future, it will follow in the footsteps of Taiwanese businessmen. The distribution of branches or offices in Southeast Asia will become more and more comprehensive.
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