On March 4 at 11:25 a.m., a man-made object unintentionally crashes onto the moon for the first time; a remnant of a rocket. We can’t see it from here because it’s happening on the far side. The consequences for the moon will be nil, given all the craters that characterize the landscape, they are used to it.
If the event is causing a tangible impact anywhere, it will be here on Earth. Because the responsibility for the piece of space debris is disputed. Astronomer Bill Gray was the first to discover that a piece of space debris would collide with the moon. He said it was probably a leftover part of a missile would be from SpaceX – billionaire Elon Musk’s company.
However, a NASA engineer pointed out to him that this could not be right: according to him, it must be a Chinese-made launcher. In 2014, China launched the unmanned Chang’e 5-T1 mission. The launch vehicle was then launched into high Earth orbit and is now heading for the moon, NASA says. But China denies that: “According to China’s surveillance, the Chang’e 5 rocket has safely reached Earth’s atmosphere, where it burned completely.”
space debris
University of Arizona PhD students confirmed the findings from NASA. The color spectrum of the object corresponds to a Chinese rocket and not a SpaceX rocket.
Also Bill Gray, the discoverer of the drifting missile, is now convinced of Chinese origin. Gray says he’s the only one who uses homemade software to track this kind of debris, which is high above the Earth. Space agencies pay little attention to this, because this debris poses no risk to Earth, unlike debris in low orbit. Still, Gray hopes this event will bring more attention to space debris in general.
China also has experience with space debris falling uncontrollably to Earth. In those cases, the Chinese often try to mitigate the risks and personal responsibility. In May last year, the remnant of a Chinese Long March 5B rocket led to warnings from international space experts.
It was one of the largest pieces of space debris to enter Earth’s atmosphere uncontrollably in three decades. Whether the rocket lacked the technology to crash into Earth in a controlled manner, or whether it malfunctioned, remained unknown. China called the warnings “Western hype” and scaremongering.
There was a good chance it would plunge into the sea – it did eventually too – or on an uninhabited piece of land, but there was certainly danger. A year earlier there was still a piece of the same kind of rocket at a cheese factory in Ivory Coast which led to strong criticism from the West about China’s handling of space debris.
crater
In 2018, the Chinese space station Tiangong-1 came down unchecked after China was unable to connect to the space station in 2016. However, China did not want to hear about the term “uncontrolled”.
The piece of space debris heading toward the moon will cause fewer problems. The object weighs about four tons and hits the moon at more than 9,000 kilometers per hour. That will leave a crater, just like when NASA deliberately crashed a vehicle on the moon in 2009. Then a crater with a diameter of 28 meters was formed.
Compared to the impact of much heavier and faster-moving natural space objects like meteorites, the impact to the moon probably feels like nothing more than a ball against the cheek.
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