The sanctions against the Russian regime have so far not had much effect on the main goal, namely to force Russia to change its political course, says Russia researcher Jakub Godzimirski at the Norwegian Institute of Foreign Policy (NUPI).
Godzimirski has worked with Russian foreign and security policy at NUPI for over 20 years, with particular emphasis on the role of energy resources in Russia’s strategy.
– DOES NOT WORK: Russia researcher Jakub Godzimirski at the Norwegian Institute of Foreign Policy (NUPI) says the sanctions against Russia do not currently have much effect. Photo: Sveinung Kyte / TV 2
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– One will have to wait for the economic effect and see whether the regime is concerned with finances. It seems that the Russian regime is currently preoccupied with ideology and inflicting great damage on Ukraine, Godzimirski told TV 2.
– We have no guarantee that sanctions will work as we hope they will work.
Tightens the grip on one’s own people
Many in the West had an expectation that sanctions against Russia would create a wave in Russian society that would force the regime to change course, if Russia attacked Ukraine.
Now that Russia has attacked and the West has imposed sanctions, it can be stated that this is not currently happening.
– There were also people who thought that such a war would lead to Russia tightening its grip on society even more. That is exactly what has actually happened, says Godzimirski.
Putin’s regime has forced all independent media to shut down or leave Russia.
– And then a number of laws have been introduced that limit both media freedom and the freedom to express oneself, Godzimirski says.
– The decision was made in secret
After Russia attacked Ukraine, the West rallied around heavy sanctions, primarily against Putin and his circle.
“Putin bet that the West would not act together, and I do not think he had expected it to go that far,” says Inna Sangadzhieva.
– Inna Sangadzhieva, senior adviser to the Helsinki Committee, does not believe Putin’s inner circle of oligarchs was informed of the invasion plans. Photo: Frode Sunde / TV 2
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Sangadzhieva grew up in Kalmykya in southwestern Russia and now works as a senior adviser to the Helsinki Committee, which works for human rights.
– There are many indications that Putin’s closest oligarch circle was not involved in the decision to enter Ukraine. That decision was probably made in secret, says Sangadzhieva.
She believes those who made the decision had a hope that the war would not take long, that Russia would take over Kyiv without blood, that Zelensky would escape the country and that the Ukrainians would be happy.
– This is a form of gambling that we have also seen before from Putin. In this case, Putin gambled that the European dependence on Russian gas would be so great that Europe was willing to give him Ukraine, Sangadzhieva said.
Gas stop will sting
So far, the sanctions against Russia have apparently not brought an end to the war any closer. But it is precisely European dependence on gas that could be the key if Europe really wants to punish Putin.
Several are now arguing that Europe must stop the import of Russian gas to Europe. For the time being, gas is flowing into European households as usual, while money is flowing the other way and financing Putin’s war machine.
– It can have a strong effect to stop gas imports, says Godzimirski.
Russia has the opportunity to transport oil to places other than Europe, but on gas Russia is dependent on gaining access to the Western European market.
– FLOWING TO EUROPE: Gas pumping station in Pisarevka, Russia. Photo: Svetlana Kozlenko / AP
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– 70 percent of the gas Russia exports goes to Western Europe. Due to lack of infrastructure, Russia does not have the opportunity to redirect this gas to other markets. There are no pipelines connecting the gas fields in Siberia with markets other than the European one, says Godzimirski.
Double-edged sword
Godzimirski says that Russia in 2021 reduced its exports of gas to Europe on the grounds that the country had to replenish its own reserves.
– Now these warehouses in Russia are almost full. This means that Russia must make some dramatic choices if the West stops importing Russian gas, says Godzimirski, and continues:
– They may have to close some of the gas fields because they do not have the opportunity to use the gas themselves, and do not have the opportunity to export to other markets. This will lead to major economic losses for Russia. It will also help drive up gas prices, says Godzimirski.
Shutting down Russian gas is thus a double-edged sword, because it harms Russia, but will also harm the European economy.
– An important reason why Putin started the war
Although no major change has been seen in Russia’s behavior in Ukraine as a result of Western sanctions, Sangadzhieva believes the sanctions work.
– They work, but it takes time. One must understand how things work in Russia. When we in the West talk about sanctions, it is logical to think that states do what they can to avoid this, says Sangadzhieva.
She explains that the Russian regime does not follow the same logic.
– When external “enemies” in the West impose sanctions on Putin’s circle, propaganda doubles. The regime is blackmailing the West against the Russian people. It is internal affairs in Russia that are the most important for Putin’s decisions, says Sangadzhieva.
According to the senior adviser, Putin’s legitimacy began to unravel with the protests against election fraud in 2011-2012.
“I think an important reason why Putin started the war was that he did not have control over internal affairs in Russia,” Sangadzhieva said.
– Putin gambler
War has always been an important part of Putin’s regime, the expert says.
– We do not find soldiers, only innocent people
– That the West’s sanctions should provoke a reaction in Putin’s regime, means that there is a form of logical thinking in the Kremlin. But here we are talking about a regime that is not fully developed. Many had hoped that Russia in the 1990s was on its way to becoming a democracy. It has instead become a dictatorship, says Sangadzhieva, and continues:
– We are now observing the beginning of the fall of the empire, and Putin is gambling to take revenge. He exploits the traumas of the Russians after the fall of the Soviet Union. Many people miss “the great empire”.
At the same time, she believes the sanctions have an effect because the costs and economic losses are significantly greater than Putin had expected.
– But we have to wait longer before the sanctions really have an effect.
Three effects of sanctions
There are three things in particular that you want to achieve with the use of sanctions:
- Send a signal
- Get the population to rebel against the regime
- Restrict access to warfare
“Ideally, you want to achieve all three of these effects,” says Godzimirski.
By worsening the economic situation in the country, there are some who hope that the population in the long run will revolt and remove the regime.
– Do Putin and the others at the top in Russia care that their own people are affected by the sanctions?
– PROTESTING: Police make mass arrests during a demonstration against the invasion of Ukraine in St. Petersburg, March 1. Photo: Dmitri Lovetsky / AP
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– He does not fear that people will not get hold of Italian parmesan or Polish apples. What he fears is that at some point people may begin to think that the policy he has pursued is not the one the country has benefited from, and may revolt. He simply fears that people will come up with other ideas about his legitimacy, says Godzimirski.
Must tread carefully
The pictures from Butsja outside Kyiv shook the world, and both the EU and the US have announced stricter sanctions. Some believe it is time to intervene militarily.
– There are many who talk about it, but so far the West has chosen not to because it fears that it may escalate to World War III.
Vladimir Putin is under strong pressure after several defeats: – I think he will be more dangerous
– What can make Putin change?
– We are talking about a country that extends over 11 time zones and has 6,000 nuclear weapons they can use if they feel very threatened. So you have to tread very carefully.
He also points out that one should not use all the instruments at once.
– If you use your entire arsenal right away, you have no more to escalate with, says Godzimirski.
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