A space rock approximately 98 feet in diameter will pass closer than the Earth-Moon distance in September, but contrary to some reports, it is not a “potentially dangerous asteroid”, clarified the Caribbean Astronomy Society (SAC ).
The educational entity explained that although it is preliminary predicted that the asteroid 2011 ES4 could go to 0.3 (or 30%) the Earth-Moon distance, the space rock is not large enough to cause regional damage if it hits our planet.
A space rock is defined as a potentially dangerous asteroid that, in addition to its remarkable close pass, is of sufficient size (over 150 meters in diameter), and has an absolute magnitude or brilliance of 22 or less. “The 2011 ES4 asteroid does not have those characteristics, so it is not potentially dangerous,” said the SAC.
“Still, the approach will be of interest to scientists, for two reasons. It will be passing closer than the distance to the Moon, and there is also uncertainty in its orbit, since this space rock could only be observed for four days in March. in 2011, and by ceasing to be visible, only a preliminary or poorly defined orbit could be established, “said Eddie Irizarry, vice president of the SAC.
He indicated that due to this uncertainty, the asteroid was assigned a condition code 7 (from 0 to 9, 0 means well-known orbit and 9 means unknown or with high uncertainty). “This implies that although it is preliminarily understood that the Earth-Moon distance will pass to 30 percent, it could pass somewhat further or even somewhat closer than expected, as well as hours before or after the forecast,” Irizarry said.
“Although it is a larger rock than the one that penetrated the skies of Russia in February 2013 (17 meters in diameter), the important thing is that the preliminary orbit suggests there is no risk of impact. Even in the event that a small asteroid like the 2011 ES4 (between 22 to 49 meters) impacts, fortunately our atmosphere disintegrates a large part of these space rocks when they penetrate it. In addition we must remember that our planet is covered in 70% by water, so the same there is a probability that it will happen over the sea, should one of these events happen, “he added.
There are records of closer and more significant steps. One of these was the asteroid “2019 OK”, a somewhat larger space rock, approximately 249 feet in diameter, which passed even closer (just 0.19 or 19% Earth-Moon distance) on July 24, 2019. Another even more significant, and really huge in proportion to the distance, will occur on April 13, 2029 (Apophis).
According to NASA, the near passage of the 2011 asteroid ES4 is scheduled for around noon on September 1, 2020, specifically around 12:12 pm Puerto Rico time.
“In the event that an apparent new asteroid is detected in the coming weeks, and subsequently its trajectory suggests that it is the same (2011 ES4), then the new observations will allow us to better define its orbit and to know with greater certainty the distance at which It will be happening, “he said.
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