(CNN) – Meteorologists point to a possible named tropical system on the southeast coast of United States this weekend.
There is a 70% chance of storm development in the next five days, predicts the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
This could be the sixth year in a row with a storm forming before June 1, the official start of the hurricane season.
If the system were named, it would be Arthur, the first name on this year’s list of Atlantic hurricanes.
Development is likely to occur just northeast or just above the Bahamas.
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As the storm builds, it could approach the east coast early next week, before returning to the Atlantic Ocean.
The most important threats on land are likely to be strong tropical storm winds, heavy rains and dangerous waves.
“If the system developed, it would probably be a subtropical depression or a subtropical storm,” says CNN meteorologist Dave Hennen. “A subtropical storm is a hybrid between a regular low-pressure area (cold core) and a purely tropical system (warm core).”
NHC began giving subtropical storms a tropical cyclone name in 2002.
For a subtropical storm to become a hurricane, it has to become completely tropical by establishing a warm core and then strengthening itself in hurricane force winds.
“This potential storm is not likely to become a full-blown hurricane,” says CNN meteorologist Chad Myers. “Still, with above-normal ocean temperatures for most of the year, mid-May is likely to become the new beginning of the tropical storm season.”
Conditions are becoming favorable for tropical development
Sea surface temperatures continue to be above average across the Atlantic, with the exception of the colder North Atlantic.
Warm surface temperatures are the fuel necessary for hurricane development.
“Although the eastern half of North America has been cold in recent days and the coastal waters are colder than normal, the likely offshore area is still 2 degrees above normal,” Myers says.
It is these sea surface temperatures and the possibility of La Niña forming that make most meteorologists speak of an active, possibly even extremely active, hurricane season in the Atlantic.
La Niña is the cold phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weather pattern, a natural phenomenon involving fluctuations in ocean temperatures in the Pacific.
La Niña is the opposite of El Niño, which is the warm phase of the cycle. If La Niña forms in the Pacific, it can significantly increase the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic because it creates a more favorable wind environment.
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There are more than a dozen published initial forecasts. And while the official forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration won’t arrive until May 21, a strong consensus on forecasts across the industry indicates that the Atlantic is in an active season.
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