After 25 years, why is terrorism once again a topic of discussion in Northern Ireland?

The news went completely unnoticed, but it was a Hugely symbolic moment for Northern Ireland. In March 2022, the terrorist threat level in the British province was lowered, for the first time in 12 years, from “serious” to “substantial”. The leader of the New IRA, one of the main groups of republican dissidents, had been detained by the intelligence services of MI5 and the organization was considered dismantled.

Attacks, or attempted attacks, had slowed markedly to a virtual absence of activity. But the New IRA it was not breaking up. What he was doing was reorganizing. And on February 22, she returned to acting.

The agent John Caldwell, one of the most prominent figures in the Police Northern Ireland (PSNI), was shot multiple times by two hooded men while off duty and coaching a youth football team. All under the presence of her son. The agent still hospitalized and will suffer lifelong consequences. MI5 has therefore been forced to carry out a new evaluation and on Tuesday the terrorist threat was raised again to “serious”, the second highest on a scale of five.

There is little less than a week left to commemorate the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement that sealed peace between Catholics and Protestants. However, the agenda with the official acts has not yet been published. Instead, the citizens have a blockade in the “autonomous” Parliament that has been extended for a year due to the lack of a coalition government and a warning from the authorities that the risk of an attack is “highly probable”.

“The public should remain vigilant but not alarmed and continue to report any concerns they have to the Northern Ireland Police Service,” said the headline for the British province, Chris Heaton-Harris, in a written statement sent Tuesday to the House of Commons. The minister stressed that a small number of people are still determined to cause “harm to our communities” through acts of violence that are politically motivated. “Over the last 25 years, Northern Ireland has been transformed into a peaceful society. The Good Friday Agreement demonstrates how peaceful and democratic politics improve society,” he underlined.

The reminder that the conflict is not over

What is happening in Northern Ireland? The reality is that the British province now has nothing to do with the time of the Troubles, the bloody three decades in which more than 3,500 people lost their lives, including 52% civilians. Since the signing of the peace, the coexistence between Catholics and Protestants (although with tensions) has been transformed. Like the economy (GDP has doubled since 1998) thanks to foreign investment, trade, tourism and investment in infrastructure, a new framework that has increased prosperity, life expectancy and attracted the arrival of new residents.

However, the activity of both the Republican dissident groups and the radical unionist gangs linked to drug trafficking has increased in the midst of the political crisis. For more than a year, there has been no coalition government in Belfast due to the tensions caused by the new customs controls that must be carried out after Brexit.

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London and Brussels have just sealed a new pact – the Windsor Agreement – which considerably reduces checks, but the new framework still not accepted by the unionists of the DUPwho do not want the British province to now be left with a different status from the rest of the United Kingdom.

The attempted assassination last month of John Caldwell in Omagh, County Tyrone, was a reminder of the threat police officers still face in Northern Ireland. Since the signing of the Good Friday Agreement, two police officers and two prison officers have been killed by dissident Republicans. Although there have been many other attempts.

Last November was held a roadside bombing, using military grade explosives, against a police patrol car in Strabane. The armored vehicle did its job and the two officers inside were not injured. However, Agent Caldwell was not so lucky.

For a long time, I was receiving threats, but he continued to carry out his activities as a football coach to a group of kids at a sports center in the town of Omagh. On February 22, after 8:00 p.m. local time, while he was picking up the balls in his car, two armed men began shooting at him at point-blank range.

Detractors of the peace agreement

During most of the Troubles, the Provisional IRA was the largest and most influential republican paramilitary group. But, in the 1980s and 1990s, the terrorist group and its political arm, El Sinn Féinbegan to take measures that eventually led to a ceasefire and support for the Good Friday Agreement, which, among other things, states that Northern Ireland will remain part of the United Kingdom until a majority of the electorate votes for a change.

Hence, the fact that Sinn Féin became the most voted formation in the last regional elections in May last year, for the first time in history, was so symbolic. The Peace Agreement also determines that Catholics and Protestants must govern in coalition in Belfast.

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Members of the Provisional IRA who opposed the Peace Agreement in 1998 formed new groups, such as the Continuity IRA, the Real IRA and, later, the New IRA. followed committed to the use of violence to try to achieve a united Ireland, something Sinn Féin has condemned for many years. All Northern Irish political parties condemn the actions of the dissidents.

In early March, Arm na Poblachta (Republic Army) said the policemen’s families would be considered targets. Smaller than the other dissident Republican groups, it emerged in 2017, but has not been as active as the Continuity IRA or the New IRA, the largest, whose main areas of operations are in Londonderry and County Tyrone. It is estimated that it has around 100 members prepared to commit acts of terrorism.

But the radical Republicans are not the only ones that worry the authorities. Last October, it was an attempted attack on a government building in the Republic of Ireland has been called off supposedly organized by loyalist paramilitaries (those who advocate staying within the UK). The attack was called off, at the last moment, after the British government confirmed that there were no plans. to create a “joint authority”which will involve Dublin, if it is not possible to form a coalition executive in Belfast.

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In the event that the political crisis in the British province does not unravel, Downing Street could impose, as has happened on other occasions, the so-called direct rule —which would be the equivalent of article 155 included in the Spanish Constitution. The Catholics of Sinn Féin (who want the reunification of the island of Ireland) demand that, if this extreme is reached, it is not only London that governs the region, but that a “shared authority” is created in which Dublin is also involved. But it is an option that unionists radically oppose.

For now, another extension has been given to the Northern Irish parties to form a coalition government. Deadlines have been extended until January 18, 2024. If the blockade continues by then, new early elections will be called.

The news went completely unnoticed, but it was a Hugely symbolic moment for Northern Ireland. In March 2022, the terrorist threat level in the British province was lowered, for the first time in 12 years, from “serious” to “substantial”. The leader of the New IRA, one of the main groups of republican dissidents, had been detained by the intelligence services of MI5 and the organization was considered dismantled.