The government unveiled its recovery plan of 100 billion euros Thursday September 3. But he mixes measures already voted Has new credits. Such recycling
is not unusual in the presentation of such plans. We try to see more clearly.
Landmarks
What has the government announced?
The injection in 2021 and 2022 of tens of billions of euros in ecology, business competitiveness and social cohesion. The executive thus hopes to stimulate activity, stricken by the epidemic. Our national production is expected to fall from 2,426 billion in 2019 to 2,183 billion this year. Prime Minister Jean Castex is counting on the 100 billion stimulus plan announced on Thursday to return to our pre-crisis level of wealth from 2022 ”.
Are there really 100 billion new credits?
No. The plan incorporates measures already voted in the 2020 budget, such as support for local authorities of 5 billion. Or the plan A young person, a solution
6.5 billion, announced at the end of July. Normally, we expect a stimulus plan to unveil new measures, observes François Écalle, specialist in public finances. However, this plan includes, for example, the 533 million corresponding to the increase of € 100 in the back-to-school allowance, paid in August …
Is such a practice unprecedented?
No, answers the host of the Fipeco site. When announcing such plans, all governments tend to mix cabbages and carrots to come up with round numbers.
In short, the new world is not much different from the old. In economics, trust is important. And announcing a $ 100 billion plan can have a psychological effect. It gives companies a signal and it’s important
, continues the former magistrate at the Court of Auditors.
So, exactly how much new spending?
Hard to say. The actual expenses are closer to 80 billion than 100. The remaining 20 billion are rather guarantees or participations in companies. 30 to 40% of the 80 billion should appear in the finance bill for 2021
, they say in the entourage of ministers. Clearly, some 32 billion will be voted in the 2021 budget. How much in 2022? How many have already been adopted in 2020? When questioned, the ministries pass the buck or remain silent.
By the way, who’s going to pay?
40 of the 80 billion will be financed by the European Union
, we say to the government. These 40 billion will come from the European recovery plan of 750 billion, made possible by the historic Macron-Merkel agreement in May. The great innovation is that Europe will borrow jointly, recalls François Écalle. The Union will reimburse from the 2030s, in theory thanks to the carbon tax at borders. But this tax does not yet exist… If it is not created, the States will be involved.
As for the 40 billion financed directly by France, they will be borrowed. The government hopes to absorb this additional debt by 2025 thanks to the growth generated by the stimulus plan.
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