A medical worker takes boxes of concentrate granules from a shelf of the Smart Emergency Pharmacy for Traditional Chinese Medicine in the Jiangxia Temporary Hospital in Wuhan, central Hubei Province, China on February 26, 2020 – NEW CHINA / SIPA
- “If a pandemic breaks out, 40% to 70% of people around the world are at risk of becoming infected within the next year. This quote from a Harvard researcher has been quoted in the media and social media.
- Marc Lipsitch stresses that being infected does not necessarily mean getting sick.
- The researcher corrected his estimate.
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Did a Harvard researcher really announce that “40 to 70% of the world population will be infected” by the
coronaviruses? This estimate, which seems alarmist, has toured international media and social networks.
Marc Lipsitch gave this estimate on February 16 to Wall street newspaper. “I think it’s likely that we’re going to see a global pandemic,” said the epidemiologist. If a pandemic breaks out, 40% to 70% of people around the world are at risk of becoming infected in the next year. I cannot give a precise figure on the proportion of these people who will be symptomatic [qui présenteront des symptômes]. “
Harvard public heath prof Mac Lipsitch, on coronavirus: “It is likely we’ll see a global pandemic … If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year.” https://t.co/M0KvaTWZ8M
– Michael C. Bender (@MichaelCBender) February 14, 2020
He returned this range in an interview with the magazine The Atlantic published on February 23 and in another interview published in
Harvard Magazine February 24. This is his interview with the magazine The Atlantic which went viral.
Postscript: My original quote was in the @wsj which I thought had huge circulation. Around the same time I said the same to the @TheAtlantic. The WSJ article made some ripples, but the Atlantic one went completely viral. Not what I expected.
– Marc Lipsitch (@mlipsitch) February 26, 2020
Are we to understand that 40 to 70% of the world population will fall ill? No, as the researcher himself explains. “Being infected is different from being sick,” he told Harvard Magazine. “Only certain people [de cette estimation] who become infected will fall ill. »In what proportion? The researcher is not yet able to say.
Modified in light of evolving evidence: 1) The 40-70% figure strictly speaking is only a sensible prediction for adults. Detected infections in kids to date are rare. Can happen, a rare goal. Still unclear if they are rarely infected or just so mild that they are rarely detected.
– Marc Lipsitch (@mlipsitch) February 25, 2020
Marc Lipsitch insists: this estimate is “a prediction”, which he has since corrected. “I should have said that 40 to 70% of adults in a situation without effective controls [pourront être infectés] “, does he have precise Tuesday on his Twitter account. An estimate to be taken with caution.
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