Time is a key factor, since the legislative elections will be held in the second half of this year as announced yesterday by Prime Minister Sunak, completely ruling out the anticipation for May as demanded by the Labor opposition (social democrats). And although without defining a date and aware of the uphill climb they have had to travel to get out of the serious economic crisis, the conservative leader began implementing the electoral strategy months ago to once again achieve the parliamentary majority.
Today, with 18.5 points behind the Labor Party led by Keir Starmer, this mission can be considered difficult, but not impossible. The average of the surveys from last December places the Social Democrats at 44% in voting intention, followed by the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats (10.5%), Green Party (6%), Scottish National Party (3%), National Party of Wales (0.5%) and Reform UK, former Brexit Party (9%).
These figures, compared to the last elections (2019), represent an increase of 11 points in the Labor Party, a fall in the ‘Tories’ of 19 points, of the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Loe by more than one point, each; While the Greens grow by more than 3%, the Welsh party remains the same and the other right-wing party, Reform UK, gains almost 7%.
As will be remembered, on that occasion, led by Boris Johnson, the Conservatives achieved the best result at the polls in the recent history of the United Kingdom. Preceded by his successful management as mayor of London (two terms), he became British premier in 2019, a position from which he left three years later due to an unthinkable rebellion in his party, led by Sunak, who paradoxically was defeated in the vote for premier. by Liz Struss, ‘defenestrated’ in October 2022, after less than two months in office.
As a tenant of the emblematic No. 10 Downing Street, this wealthy technocrat promised to give stability to the country that had driven the markets crazy due to doubts about assuming the public debt generated by his predecessor’s idea of a reduction in taxes for the highest incomes. . And he achieved it in a short period of time, according to experts, academics and citizens.
When the government took office, a road map was established with five priorities, namely: halving inflation, growing the economy despite the vertiginous growth of prices, reducing the national debt, cutting waiting lists in health centers health and put an end to the arrival of irregular migrant boats from the other side of the English Channel. He anticipated that the tax cut would come at the right time.
With economic and budgetary orthodoxy, today it can exhibit a satisfactory balance in at least three of its four objectives. From 11% inflation in November 2022 (a record in four decades), it slowed down rapidly, taking it to 3.9% in the same month of the previous year, the lowest in two years. While the accumulated figure for that month was 3.9% and the year-on-year figure was 6.7%.
Thus, not only did the purchasing power of the British improve, but there was even an increase in salaries, allowing it to be higher than the inflation rate since the beginning of August, which had not happened for two years.
At the same time and precisely to stop the rise in the cost of living, the English issuing bank began a streak of increases in interest rates and since September it has maintained them at 5.25%, which is expected to begin to decrease from May, a once economic growth is recorded.
The United Kingdom’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted 0.1% in the third quarter and stagnated in the second, according to figures published at the end of the year, which revised preliminary data downwards and project a difficult outlook, especially due to the price of oil and gas that have risen due to external conflicts, but with greater calm.
Another issue that Sunak’s management has focused on has been the growing irregular migration through the English Channel and for this he worked hand in hand with his Italian counterpart, the also conservative Georgia Meloni. This alliance made it possible for the European Union to recently adopt an agreement on migration that should come into operation this year.
On that front it has also complied with accelerating asylum resolutions. “More than 112,000 cases have currently been resolved with a lower subsidy rate than last year, a key part of our plan to stop the boats,” Sunak wrote yesterday on the social network X, in which he also said that “reduce halve inflation and then reduce taxes” has been his plan and that “I am going to fulfill it.”
At the international level, with an increasingly dangerous situation due to existing conflicts (the war in Ukraine and the Israeli offensive against Hamas, among others) and the geopolitical repositioning of China, among others, Sunak made an unthinkable but successful political move: he appointed chancellor to former Prime Minister David Cameron, a renowned figure in the party.
2024-01-04 21:08:54
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