Experts count on the seriousness of international efforts and on the pressure on the warring parties to complete a political agreement, as it is the only way to achieve a real breakthrough in the country, which has been at war since 2015 between the legitimate government supported by Coalition in support of legitimacyIran-backed Houthi coup militia.
influence distribution
Yemeni political writer Waddah al-Jalil expects the political solution aimed at by external and international pressures will center on:
• Forcing combatants to accept what is on the ground, and distributing influence among them in an agreement that stops the war, even if temporarily.
• The agreement will not end the war, nor will it provide a possible basis for ending it.
• Al-Jalil is unlikely to see a complete turnaround in Yemen this year, because "The accumulations of past years cannot be resolved in one year except by a miracle, or by the accelerating pace of events leading to détente, and there is currently no indication of this.".
• The international community and major powers are working to manage the crisis without finding radical solutions to it, and it is very clear that even if these powers want a solution, it would be to get all parties to share influence and enter into an agreement that preserves what is under its control for each of the parties.
• This situation will put the coup militias in a better position than others, especially the legitimate government and the rest of the parties, because these militias have strengthened their influence in recent years and strengthened their grip on state institutions and penetrated society and they produced entities parallel to state institutions, and built their own economy at the expense of the state economy, and became well-trained and armed militias, and even intelligence agencies.
• This is allowed Houthi militia The ability to cohere and take advantage of the standstill period of the war in its favor, and the willingness to pounce on the other parties and veto all agreements, and put the international community and the major powers back with a fait accompli.
• In general, the new year could see the usual movement of international parties and the United Nations through its envoy to hold negotiating meetings and reach a new round of consultations, and this issue is being worked out in Muscat, and does not seem to deliver equal opportunities for all or true peace and soon the restoration of the state.
living crisis
As for the Yemeni politician, Muhammad al-Faqih, he sees no horizon for a real solution except with three intertwined facts:
• Existence of international pressure to undermine the influence of the Houthi militia.
• Strengthen the ability of government forces backed by the Legitimacy Support Coalition to regain influence in the capital and in areas under Houthi control.
Tackling the humanitarian and social crisis from which the country is suffering, which in recent years has worsened to the point of reaching an historical and unprecedented level of hunger, poverty, serious shortages of food and medicines and the collapse of the service system, while the Houthi militias seize state resources for the benefit of Iran.
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Yemeni experts who spoke to “Sky News Arabia” predicted that the crisis will see two scenarios during the new year: the first is the achievement of a political agreement that paves the way for the peace process, the other, on the contrary, is the military one escalation between the conflicting parties, or what can be described as a forerunner before the end.
Experts count on the seriousness of international efforts and on the pressure on the warring parties to complete a political agreement, as it is the only way to achieve a real breakthrough in the country, which has been at war since 2015 between the legitimate government supported by Coalition in support of legitimacyIran-backed Houthi coup militia.
influence distribution
Yemeni political writer Waddah al-Jalil expects the political solution aimed at by external and international pressures will center on:
• Forcing combatants to accept what is on the ground, and distributing influence among them in an agreement that stops the war, even if temporarily.
• The agreement will not end the war, nor will it provide a possible basis for ending it.
• Al-Jalil rules out a complete turnaround in Yemen this year, because “the buildups of past years cannot be resolved in one year except by a miracle, or the accelerated pace of events leading to a turnaround, and there is no no indication of that at present”.
• The international community and major powers are working to manage the crisis without finding radical solutions to it, and it is very clear that even if these powers want a solution, it would be to get all parties to share influence and enter into an agreement that preserves what is under its control for each of the parties.
• This situation will put the coup militias in a better position than others, especially the legitimate government and the rest of the parties, because these militias have strengthened their influence in recent years and strengthened their grip on state institutions and penetrated society and they produced entities parallel to state institutions, and built their own economy at the expense of the state economy, and became well-trained and armed militias, and even intelligence agencies.
• This is allowed Houthi militia The ability to cohere and take advantage of the standstill period of the war in its favor, and the willingness to pounce on the other parties and veto all agreements, and put the international community and the major powers back with a fait accompli.
• In general, the new year could see the usual movement of international parties and the United Nations through its envoy to hold negotiating meetings and reach a new round of consultations, and this issue is being worked out in Muscat, and does not seem to deliver equal opportunities for all or true peace and soon the restoration of the state.
living crisis
As for the Yemeni politician, Muhammad al-Faqih, he sees no horizon for a real solution except with three intertwined facts:
• Existence of international pressure to undermine the influence of the Houthi militia.
• Strengthen the ability of government forces backed by the Legitimacy Support Coalition to regain influence in the capital and in areas under Houthi control.
Tackling the humanitarian and social crisis from which the country is suffering, which in recent years has worsened to the point of reaching an historical and unprecedented level of hunger, poverty, serious shortages of food and medicines and the collapse of the service system, while the Houthi militias seize state resources for the benefit of Iran.
