Nell’Southern Hemisphere is Winter, and there are unusual adverse weather conditions, unusual snowfall and cold waves released from the Arctic. But in our Hemisphere the Winter it is much more complex. In North America, the cold comes from the northwest, and it is frequent because the cold areas extend over Canada. In Europe at the same latitudes as Canada, we have the Atlantic Ocean, which being a sea mitigates the climate and the winter season, then there is also the Gulf Stream. In Italy there is also the Mediterranean with much milder waters than the Atlantic Ocean at the same latitudes.
This is why the cold is hard to come in most of Italy.
The great cold in Europe comes mainly from Russia, or even better from Siberia or the Russian Arctic.
We tried to observe the trend lines of various mathematical models, those that predict the trend climate patterns of behavior. We looked for evidence of these forecasts in the seasonal projections of 3 International Weather Centers: the European, the American and the Canadian.
None of the 3 mathematical models are aligned with the same trend lines, at least monthly, while on a seasonal basis, on average they converge on a common series of lines.
North Atlantic Oscillation, N.A.O.
According to some studies and reports, the NAO next winter, especially in the first part, would have a better chance of being negative. This for Europe would lead to a harsh and snowy winter.
But be careful, it does not mean that there will be the great frost from Russia. On this the climatic patterns of behavior are articulated and complex, and have a very bad reliability in the very long term.
It is possible to have a prospect of thermal evolution of European Russia, but it is not at all obvious that then there will be effects up to Italy. Accuweather’s seasonal forecast will be out soon, we’ll see what they say.
NOT negative
The negative NAO favors the intrusion of perturbations in the central Mediterranean, with associated incursions of cold air from the Arctic. This can also come from the Russian Arctic and reach through continental European areas, and therefore be rather cold and favor snowfalls, especially in the Mediterranean areas, where generally low pressure areas are formed.
CM OF SNOW PER CITY
Every summer, in recent times, we happen to read forecasts from GOSSIP that forecast temperatures and the amount of snow that could fall in some Italian cities. This prediction is unreliable.
CANADIAN MATHEMATICAL MODEL
Among the various Weather Centers, the Canadian mathematical model predicts negative term anomalies in Central and Northern Italy, with above average rainfall. This would favor snowfall at low altitudes on these areas, and heavy snow for the start of the season in the Alps. But we will have months and months to discuss this trend.
We remind you that weather forecasts with a validity of up to 5 days have greater reliability, while this decreases as we move away over time.
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