Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will receive Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Christerson in Ankara, willing to continue the project of inclusion of his country in NATO, which Turkey has blocked since May.
The Turkish president is in a position of strength, after his recent mediation with Russian President Vladimir Putin managed to bring Moscow back to a Ukrainian grain export deal.
Sending a clear message to Russia
Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General, paved the way for Christerson when he visited Turkey last week.
“It is time to welcome Finland and Sweden as NATO members,” Stoltenberg said from Istanbul, adding that it was necessary “to send a clear message to Russia”.
While Turkey has welcomed the progress in talks since the formation of the new Swedish government last month, Erdogan confirmed Friday for the third time in a month that the Turkish parliament would not ratify the two Scandinavian countries’ annexation to NATO until had not taken some “measures”.
Extradition requests
Turkey accuses Sweden and Finland of hosting Kurdish fighters from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party and People’s Protection Units, which Ankara classifies as “terrorist” organizations.
To circumvent Turkey’s objections, the three countries signed a memorandum of understanding on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Madrid in June, specifically dealing with extradition requests.
Since then, Turkey has expressed its impatience, as Sweden has extradited only one wanted person since the beginning of the year on charges of “fraud”.
However, Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Bellstrom said in an interview with AFP at the end of October that he was convinced that Stockholm could “fulfill” the terms of the memorandum of understanding, referring to a “positive dialogue” with Ankara.
As a sign of Sweden’s goodwill, Belstrom stressed on Saturday that his country should “disassociate” from the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), the backbone of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. Ankara views the YPG as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has been fighting against it for decades.
The pressure will build.
Some analysts believe that the presidential and legislative elections in Turkey, scheduled for June 2023, could delay the mechanism for Sweden and Finland to join NATO.
“The Turkish side will support annexation when it deems it the best time to play this card,” said Elki Toygur, professor of European geopolitics at the Carlos III University of Madrid. “In the meantime, the pressure is likely to increase, but it appears that a large number of NATO countries already consider the expansion to happen next year.
“Also, many would agree that Turkey is trying to negotiate other things – they could be[queste cose]related to the F-16s[combattenti americani]or its relations with Russia in general, “Tuygur says.
“Erdogan believes that he has received enough signals of goodwill from Sweden and that it is in his political and military interest to declare victory? Or does he prefer to hold a speech that will serve his electoral campaign?” Asks an American diplomat, without revealing his name. .
But the diplomat familiar with the file believes there is a “reasonable chance” of seeing the Turkish parliament ratify the two countries’ membership of NATO before June 2023.
