A nice loss of speed. Here is what stands out economic forecasts from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). According to the latter, global growth should plateau at 2.9%, its lowest level since the global recession of 2009. If the financier
Steve Eisman does not predict a crisis worthy of 2008 to come, 20 minutes wondered about the consequences of such a slowdown on the French purse.
Very limited effects…
“In light of French growth forecasts, we should not have any significant change,” says Henri Sterdyniak, economist at the French Observatory for Economic Conditions (OFCE). According to him, the decline in French growth estimated at 1.2% for 2020 remains small. “We should continue to see job creation but weaker than this year,” he added. Same observation for Maxime Chipoy, director of the Moneyvox site. en: “It will be a little less wealth to redistribute, so companies will have less room to maneuver to hire and increase their employees. “
Fewer increases, this means stagnating purchasing power for employees. “Especially since direct measurements have been made following the”Yellow vests“In 2019, it is not certain that they will be renewed, explains Henri Sterdyniak, in addition, we are moving towards a reduction in social benefits in view of the reforms to come. So we could even see a drop in purchasing power if necessary, according to the economist.
Maxime Chipoy is not more optimistic by taking into account the psychological index of individuals at first: “In a complicated economic environment, as is currently the case with the pension reform, the French will tend to save . Consumption and investment could therefore be affected. Henri Sterdyniak demonstrates this: “Already in 2019, it was the school of mistrust, with all the talk of addiction, etc. As proof, savings increased by 1%. “
However, with the historically low rates posted this year, savings are not very profitable at present. Henri Sterdyniak also confirms: “In this situation, you have to go into debt to be a winner. And not everyone can afford to do it. “And that should not change in 2020 according to Maxime Chipoix:” The European Central Bank should not review its rates. “
But the two speakers agreed on the importance of the political choices that could upset these forecasts.
…under certain conditions
“What confirms these points are the latest announcements that have reassured the markets,” said Henri Sterdyniak. Boris Johnson’s success and conservatives in the British legislative elections and the warming of relations between
China and the United States have given positive guarantees to the various grants which are already in great shape. Maxime Chipoix abounds: “The markets hate uncertainty and this latest news is going in the right direction. And as long as central banks flood them with cash, it will continue. “However, the director of
Moneyvox puts a few caveats to these predictions. First of all, these international nodes are not untied and nothing can be taken for granted. In addition, Germany, France’s main trading partner, came close to recession this year. “If Germany does not react and does not decide to invest a little more, it could be penalized, and therefore France with it, through the privileged exchanges that we have. “
In addition, if many want to be reassuring about a major economic crisis that will be avoided next year, others say that this is not yet the case. Maxime Chipoix explains: “For the moment the signals are positive, but if a central bank starts to raise interest rates, all the others could follow and then we would be dealing with a domino effect. “