IN SHORT:
The security guarantees required by Russia are expressed in two draft agreements – one for signing with the United States, the other with NATO member states. The central idea in these draft agreements is that NATO not only undertakes not to expand further east, but even to retreat from existing positions. Article 4 of Russia’s proposed agreement with NATO states:
“The Russian Federation and all the members which were members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization on 27 May 1997 shall not deploy their forces and armaments in the territories of other European States, respectively.”
This article covers 14 NATO members, including Latvia, which joined the Alliance after 1997. So Russia is actually demanding that the so-called old NATO members withdraw their units from the new members.
The continuation of Article 4 proposed by Russia describes exceptional cases. “In exceptional cases (…) relating to the need to counteract a security threat to one or more of the parties to a contract, such [bruņoto spēku] The placement may take place with the consent of all participants. “
if Russia were to invent an attack on NATO’s eastern flank, help could only come with Russia’s own permission.
Russia’s further demands also limit the conduct of military exercises at Russia’s borders and the defense of Ukraine and other countries. This is stated, for example, in Article 7: “Members which are members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization shall refrain from any military action on the territory of Ukraine, as well as in other countries of Eastern Europe, the Transcaucasus and Central Asia.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov did not hide in an interview with Vladimir Solovyov, a Kremlin propagandist, a year ago, that Russia first wants to discuss these guarantees with the United States, but does not want to go into long chatter.
Lavrov called the countries on the Russian border territories “left homeless” after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
“It simply came to our notice then [NATO] now, as Putin said, it is on the doorstep of our house, it cannot leave us indifferent, “Lavrov said.
Russia’s wish list comes at a time when it continues to pull military units around Ukraine and Crimea. These demands, which demand almost nothing from Russia itself, have been called unacceptable and even absurd by Western political, diplomatic and expert circles.
“Russia is trying to rebuild or think somewhere in the categories of the 19th century: areas of interest where the great powers can agree among themselves, including third countries. That is unacceptable.”
says Andris Sprūds, director of the Latvian Foreign Policy Institute and RSU professor.
“This list of demands is completely unacceptable because it undermines the European security architecture, which has brought prosperity, democracy and stability to the region since 1991. Accepting any of Russia’s demands would undermine the system,” said Katarzina Pisarska, director of the Warsaw Security Forum.
In turn, the Minister of Defense of Latvia Artis Pabriks (For Development / Par!) Calls these Russian demands an ultimatum, on which no further negotiations can be built:
“De facto all NATO members joining NATO after 1997 would effectively disarm and become endangered territories or Russian satellites. “
Pabriks has not heard support for these Russian demands from any NATO or European Union country. However, it is not clear exactly how the new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz wants to restart relations with Russia.
As for the United States, Latvian officials have no doubt that we will not be judged in absentia. In an interview with Latvijas Radio a week ago, President Egils Levits said, referring to the presidents of several countries repeatedly repeated by US President Joe Biden that “we will not have any dialogue about you without you”.
“We are constantly receiving strong assurances through diplomatic channels that nothing will be done without us and at our expense, and here we have strong confidence in our allies in Washington,” says Pabriks.
The US ambassador to NATO on Friday denied that the US would make a proposal to reduce the number of troops in Eastern Europe before talks with Russia on easing tensions at Ukraine’s borders. At the same time, American foreign policy has tended to be less involved in distant global games in recent years. And although the guarantees required by Russia will not be signed by anyone, to some extent they are already being fulfilled, according to a foreign policy expert.
“When it comes to admitting new members, Russia or not Russia, but there is simply no great will to expand here. [ar Krievijas ultimātu]. The question of how to present it. How to present it is not a concession at the same time, “says Sprūds.
Russia has, to some extent, pushed itself into the corner by making such unrealistic demands on the West.
And the worst-case scenario would be that it deliberately acted in such a way that the guarantees were rejected and that it could continue to pursue its military intentions in Ukraine.
An expert from Poland believes that Russia could have attacked Ukraine for a long time, if it really wanted to, if that was really Russia’s goal, but in its opinion, it is not.
“Russia is trying to play with bad cards, with a shameless bluff, hoping that it will get anything out of it for free,” Pisarska said.
She believes that the West should already increase the pressure on Russia, suggesting that Ukraine will receive all the necessary support, even though NATO troops will not kick their feet on Ukrainian soil.
“There is a danger that Putin has trapped himself in certain traps, because it is absolutely impossible and unlikely to fulfill his ultimatums. But if this is not done, then how will Putin react to it?” points out.
Talks with Russia are planned in various formats. The presidents of the United States and Russia both called and met last year, and talks between the two countries’ foreign ministers will take place in Geneva next week, and the NATO-Russia Council will meet.
It should be noted that it is Russia that has created a situation that it is desperately trying to remedy. Namely, the support for NATO membership in NATO society and the long-term presence of NATO units in the Baltic States has significantly increased.
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