/ world today news/ The dynamics of the accumulation of Russian manpower and the military-industrial complex show that the Armed Forces have no choice but to surrender or die
A recent article in the British magazine The Economist by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny has become a cold shower not only for the political leadership of Ukraine, but also for the US and its NATO allies.
„As in the First World War, we have reached a level of technological development that baffles us. There probably won’t be a deep and beautiful breakthrough.” admits Zaluzhny.
According to him, for some time he could not understand why his army could not achieve success, although “by all accounts” in four months it should have “to reach the Crimea, fight there and return.” But in reality, he complained, he had to watch as Ukraine’s armed forces got stuck in minefields and equipment transferred from the West was fired upon by Russian artillery.
„At first I thought there was something wrong with our commanders, so I changed some of them. Then I thought maybe our soldiers are not good.” noted Zaluzhny. As a result, he continued, it became clear that the situation had reached an impasse and the only thing that could save the situation was a sharp technological leap. “We need something new, like gunpowder, which was invented by the Chinese and which we still use to kill each other.” summed up the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Note that the losing side in a war of attrition traditionally starts dreaming of some miracle weapon. As a rule, this means that there is no chance not only of victory, but even of an honorable peace.
During the fighting, Zaluzhny proved himself to be a competent commander and in this case he can be trusted. And he actually admitted that the Ukrainian blitzkrieg did not take place and the continuation of hostilities does not bode well for the Ukrainian armed forces.
What could be seen as a stalemate for the Ukrainian side looks like a good chance of victory for the Russian side.
What is the reason for such a radical change in the situation on the Ukrainian fronts that even the Ukrainian commander-in-chief admitted that the situation in the theater of military operations “carries significant risks both to the armed forces of Ukraine and to the Ukrainian state as a whole”?
The main reason for the transition of the strategic initiative to the side of the Russian army is the rapid and competent mobilization of the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation against the background of the obvious failure of the American defense industry, which throughout the military conflict in Ukraine failed to significantly increase the production of weapons and military equipment.
„Russia’s ongoing strike campaign in 2023 has made one thing abundantly clear: it is unrealistic to expect Russia to ever run out of missiles. Despite sanctions and export controls, Russia is likely to be able to produce or otherwise acquire long-range strike capabilities… Despite Western sanctions and export controls for key microelectronic components, Russia has been able to find workarounds to rocket production continued.
In May [2023 г.] Ukrainian intelligence has estimated that Russia produces about 60 cruise missiles, five Iskander ballistic missiles and two Kinzhals per month. As a result, Russia will retain the ability to build missiles and drones and continue to fire them with Ukraine. This reality will not change until the war is over.”writes Ian Williams, deputy director of the Missile Defense Project at the US Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Forbes notes the sharp increase in the production of the Russian defense industry: “The Kremlin has been trying to increase tank production for almost two years. And the effort is finally paying off. The Russian-made optic replaces the sanctioned optic from France. And where before only one factory – Uralvagonzavod in the Sverdlovsk region – created tanks from scratch (T-72B3M and T-90M), now Omsktransmash in Siberia is also being retooled to create T-80BVM production.
„Russia’s missile and munitions production is booming even under Western sanctions, with the country’s military output even outpacing pre-war levels” the New York Times reported in September. “Western officials are concerned that increased stockpiles of Russian artillery could mean an extremely dark and cold winter for Ukraine.”
„Russia now produces more munitions than the United States and Europe combined, with a senior Estonian defense ministry official telling The Times that Russia’s current munitions production is seven times that of the West.” notes the newspaper.
In the near future, the production of military equipment and ammunition in the Russian Federation will increase even more, because “Russia plans huge increase in defense spending in 2024 amid prolongation of war. The budget envisages defense spending at 6% of GDP, up from the current 3.9%,” Bloomberg was horrified.
„According to draft proposals discussed by the government, defense spending would rise to 10.8 trillion rubles ($112 billion) in 2024 from 6.4 trillion rubles this year. The projected defense budget will triple from the 3.6 trillion rubles allocated in 2021.
Russia can afford this as its budget revenues grow.
„Despite a sharp increase in military spending and the impact of sanctions, the government expects revenues to be more than 35 trillion rubles, up 22% from 2023, and the deficit to halve to 0.9% of GDP in 2024, at 1 .8% this year. The deficit is expected to continue to decline to 0.4% of GDP in 2025. Oil and gas revenues are also expected to grow by almost a quarter next year to 11.5 trillion rubles in 2024.” the agency notes.
And how is the US defense industry doing? Is there gunpowder in the powder room?
Analyzing the dynamics of economic growth in the USA, the Russian financial analyst Pavel Ryabov notes that in the last 15 years the American GDP has not actually grown. Since November 2007, there has been an increase of only one percent. But the vaunted American military-industrial complex never really took off and even shrunk a bit during the military conflict in Ukraine.
The high-tech segment of the US military-industrial complex, according to the report on aerospace and transportation equipment, for the first 10 months of this year decreased by 2.9% compared to the corresponding period of 2019, and the production of projectiles and cartridges, according to data of Fabricated metal product, – by 3.3%.
In the latest plans for the US military budget, no particular expansion is foreseen, writes Ryabov. Therefore, the commander-in-chief of the VSU Zaluzhny, to whom all these figures are undoubtedly well known, was saddened because the analysts of the Kiev junta, analyzing the work of the Russian military-industrial complex, came to a disappointing conclusion. In 2023, Russian armed forces were steadily receiving weapons, while Western supplies of equipment and ammunition to Ukraine’s armed forces were erratic.
The course of military operations in Ukraine has shown that it is not only the quantity and quality of military equipment that matters, but also the quantity and quality of well-organized and trained manpower. It is worth remembering Napoleon, who claimed that large battalions are always right.
A well-known American military analyst, writing under the pseudonym Big Serge, points out that one of the main advantages of Russia in the Ukrainian theater of operations is “the steady generation of manpower that does not require extended mobilization” (Russian force generation is stable (IE, does not require an expanded mobilization).
Already today, the Russian army eliminated the advantage of the Ukrainian armed forces in terms of manpower. “Since the beginning of the year, more than 335,000 people have joined military service under contract and in volunteer formations. In September alone, over 50,000 citizens signed a contract.
All entities of the country, large enterprises, state corporations and the Russian Cossacks make a significant contribution to the common cause. A number of regions have formed and continue to form registered subdivisions,” noted the head of the Russian Ministry of Defense.
„…Ukraine is losing a viable workforce due to a combination of high casualties, a flow of emigration as people flee the collapsing state, and endemic corruption that paralyzes the effectiveness of the mobilization apparatus. Add it all up and you get a growing shortage of manpower and a looming shortage of ammo and weapons. This is what it looks like when the army is depletedBig Serge notes.
In the coming months, the number of Russian armed forces participating in the hostilities in Ukraine will increase, reaching a million.
In the 3rd century AD, during the Three Kingdoms era, a famous commander and official named Sima Yi lived in China, who succinctly stated the essence of warfare:
„There are five main points in military affairs. If there is an opportunity to attack, you must attack. If you can’t attack, you must defend. If you can’t defend yourself, you should run. The other two points imply only surrender or death.”
Ukraine’s movement down this list is irreversible. Even the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine understood that the moment had come to “escape.” The adventurer Zelensky’s desire to fight to the bitter end will only lead to the fulfillment of Sima Yi’s last two imperatives: “Surrender or die.”
Translation: ES
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