While large parts of the world begged Russia to stop the invasion of Ukraine, Belarus extended its hand to Putin.
“Belarusian forces are ready to help Russia against Ukraine,” said President Alexander Lukashenko on Thursday.
On the same day, he had given Russian forces permission to enter Ukraine from Belarus in the early hours of Thursday.
The international community reacted immediately to the intervention. Why does Lukashenko, who has long tried to remain neutral and seek cooperation with Western countries, now choose to become so actively involved in the war?
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Lukashenko has no choice, says researcher Arve Hansen in the Norwegian Helsinki Committee.
He says that after the presidential election in Belarus in 2020, which was followed by major protests about electoral fraud and international condemnation, it became clear that Lukashenko does not have legitimate power.
– He is completely dependent on Putin’s support for holding his own country, Hansen says and continues:
– He has a role as a local authority figure, not a head of state. He is no longer the master of his own house, says Hansen.
Timeline: This has happened in Ukraine
– Lightning on the day
Hansen has researched in depth on the development of conflict in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia.
He explains that although Lukashenko has until recently tried to remain neutral – and has recently held talks with both Ukraine, Russia and France about the war in the Donbas – Lukashenko’s loyalty still lies with Russia.
The Belarusian president is dependent on Russian police to maintain his own power, but also heavily financially dependent on Russia through both loans and exports.
Without that support and help, he could be lynched and killed during the day. If Putin asks Lukashenko to use Belarus’ territory, he must obey.
Hansen will not rule out the possibility that they will also join their own military forces – if Putin asks for help.
– Whether they enter actively or not, it is an act of war to make their territory available to someone who intends to occupy another country.
– Terribly embarrassed
Hansen himself has lived and worked for ten years in the East Slavic area. In recent days, he has been in contact with several of his Belarusian friends.
– They are terribly embarrassed, but also in grief that they have an active participation in this war. There are two countries that are close to each other geopolitically, but also culturally, Hansen says.
EXPERIENCED: Arve Hansen has lived in the East Slavic area for ten years, and among other things studied at two Belarusian universities in Mensk and worked for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Kyiv and Murmansk. Photo: Harald Hoff.
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He points out that the Ukrainian language is closer to the Belarusian language than the Russian. The two countries, for example, share singing and musical traditions, and what Hansen calls a common “agricultural culture”.
– The ties between Ukraine and Belarus are strong. They have a more equal relationship than with Ukraine, than they have with Russia, he explains.
Nevertheless, the Belarussian population has very limited opportunities to protest. Hansen assumes that the vast majority feel compelled to keep their opinions to themselves.
– They’re scared. It is probably easier for Russians to protest against the war than it is in Belarus. As soon as you go out with a poster, you risk life in prison. Therefore, it is relatively quiet from there, the researcher explains.
– Coordinated
This weekend, a constitutional amendment is to be voted on in Belarus. Normally, the vote would create media headlines that direct a critical focus on the regime, but this weekend the event will probably not reach the top of the international news picture.
It is hardly coincidental, Hansen thinks.
– I reckon that it is coordinated between Russia and Belarus. It may be a good time to implement it, he points out and continues:
– If people go out and protest, they risk being subjected to violence, long prison sentences and fines. Therefore, it is relatively quiet from there, the researcher explains.
IRON HAND: The regime of President Alexander Lukashenko has cracked down on protesters in connection with the elections in 2020. Today, a number of regime critics and journalists are imprisoned. (AP Photo, File)
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When asked if Lukashenko has any vested interest in the Ukraine conflict, says chief researcher Tor Bukkvoll at the Armed Forces Research Institute:
– It is in a way in his interest to prevent Ukraine from becoming an example of a former Soviet state that makes a Western model of democracy work.
If they succeed in doing so, it could lead to riots in several places, Bukkvoll believes.
– In Belarus, more and more people are willing to protest against him. He wants to prevent people from getting up and overthrowing their dictator.
Will sanction Belarus
Kristian Åtland at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment, believes that it is quite obvious that Belarus must also receive strong sanctions.
He points out that Russia has long had large forces in Belarus. Russia has said it is part of a joint exercise operation.
– Now we see what the real purpose has been: To use the territory as a marching area. The border between Ukraine and Belarus is about 1000 kilometers long, and is a very important axis of attack for Russia, says Åtland.
He agrees with Hansen’s analysis that Lukashenko is complicit and is helping to facilitate this invasion.
– They have let their territory be used for a Russian attack on Ukraine, so this is a joint Russian and Belarusian project.
