The report on the research into the origin of the coronavirus, which was carried out by seventeen scientists on behalf of the WHO and seventeen Chinese colleagues, mainly reads as an agenda for further research.
At an online press conference this afternoon, the researchers highlighted the large amount of new data they are now publishing, but did not hide the fact that there are still many important questions related to the origin of the virus.
The press conference was attended by some of the 17 scientists from the WHO team, but none of their Chinese colleagues.
Bats
The second phase of the investigation into the origin of SARS-CoV-2 should focus on the earliest cases of covid-19. In the second half of December 2019, looking back in blood samples from patients, there was a sharp increase in covid cases, but no samples were found in samples from before December.
These need to be reviewed, as do blood samples from donors from the months before the outbreak. Research is also needed on the farms where wild animals are bred for consumption and sold in the Huanan market. Some of these farms are in areas where the bats live, which are considered to be the source of the virus.
Yesterday, an almost final draft of the report had already been leaked, revealing that WHO researchers and their Chinese colleagues believe the virus has passed from one bat to another animal.
How that happened exactly, with which animal as an intermediate station and where and when it happened must, as stated, be the subject of follow-up research. A second scenario – although the experts believe it less – is that the virus passed directly from a bat to a human. The experts also want to conduct additional research on this point.
Frozen food
The scenario that the virus may have spread through frozen food sold at the Huanan fish market in Wuhan is also less likely, according to scientists. Nevertheless, this will be further investigated, including the possibility that the virus reached China from another country via such products.
Marion Koopmans, head of virology at Erasmus MC and member of the WHO mission, said the bats considered to be the most likely carriers of SARS-CoV-2 are not only found in certain regions of China but also outside of China.
Koopmans also pointed to research that would show that the virus was detected in Europe at an early stage, although in her opinion it is a study of not the best quality. “But we have to keep an open mind. If there is a serious trail to another country, then we have to investigate it. We keep following the science.”
The researchers consider it highly unlikely that the virus was created in a lab. They have not found any evidence of this and state that they have had sufficient opportunity to ascertain this during their visit to the Institute of Virology in Wuhan.
Solid negotiations
Until the very last moment, negotiations were held with the Chinese researchers about the final text of the research report. It is not clear what exactly those negotiations were about, but it does not seem unlikely that it included the possibility that the virus did not come from China, and whether this should be clearly reflected in the report.
Already in the press conference at the end of the investigative mission in February, the Chinese hammered on that possibility. At today’s press conference, investigative leader Peter Ben Embarek said that “of course no one wants the origin of an outbreak to be in their backyard”.
He said it is not illogical for a virus to cross borders and that it is important to “follow science with an open mind and look elsewhere”.
Politics
A few brief references were made to the difficult political circumstances surrounding the fact-finding mission. Embarek confirmed that the work was constantly under a lot of pressure. “There was political pressure from China and other countries,” he said.
His fellow researcher Peter Daszak underscored what an achievement it has been in “working with the Chinese scientists even under very difficult political circumstances. This cooperation must continue, because it is indispensable in the fight against the pandemic”, said Daszak.
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