/View.info/ There is a new source of tension in the East. Pakistan launched strikes against Iran in response to attacks on its territory. The international community is disturbed by what is happening, Islamabad and Tehran have lowered the level of diplomatic relations. About the causes and possible consequences of the exacerbation – in the material.
An exchange of blows
On January 17, Tehran attacked the Sunni group Justice Army in Pakistan, which claimed responsibility for the attack in southeastern Iran in December. Then 12 policemen died.
Islamabad was outraged. “This illegal act is completely unacceptable and has no justification,” the foreign ministry said in a statement. “Pakistan reserves the right to respond. The responsibility for the consequences rests solely with Iran,” they added.
According to official information, two children died and three were injured. Acting Prime Minister Anwar ul Haq Kakar has left the World Economic Forum in Davos urgently and returned to his homeland. The Iranian ambassador, who was in Tehran at the time of the attack, was advised not to fly back to Islamabad. The Pakistani ambassador has been recalled.
The Iranians limited themselves to one series of strikes. According to them, two headquarters of the “Army of Justice” were destroyed. No comment on civilian casualties in Tehran.
The West fears a new major regional conflict involving a nuclear power (Pakistan). Representatives of these countries talked on the sidelines of the CIF the day before. There were no warnings of military action then.
On the morning of January 18, it became known about Pakistan’s retaliatory attacks.
“Brother side”
They hit Sistan and Baluchistan province in the southeast of the Islamic Republic. “Over the past few years, Islamabad has consistently expressed serious concern about sanctuaries used by terrorists of Pakistani origin in the ungoverned territories of Iran,” the foreign ministry said. “We provided numerous files with concrete evidence of the presence and activities of the terrorists. However, they continued to shed the blood of innocent people with impunity.” The attacks are proof of Pakistan’s “unwavering determination to protect national security against all threats.”
According to Tehran, at least three women and four children, “non-Iranian nationals”, were killed. In total, according to the Anadolu Agency, missiles and drones hit seven targets of the Balochistan Liberation Army group, which is designated as a terrorist group in Pakistan and several other countries.
Islamabad emphasized that it respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Islamic Republic. “Our only goal is to ensure our own security and national interests. Iran is a brotherly country and the people of Pakistan have great respect and love for their people.” However, Pakistan’s armed forces are on high alert.
Moscow called on the parties to “maximum restraint and resolve emerging issues exclusively by political and diplomatic methods.” “We emphasize again the need to conduct any anti-terrorist operations outside sovereign territory with the agreement and coordination between the authorities of the participating states,” Russian Foreign Ministry Press Secretary Maria Zakharova said.
China also became involved in resolving the conflict. China’s Consul General in Pakistan Yang Yundong, recalling that it is the largest countries in the region and the Muslim world, offered Beijing’s mediation: “China is ready to play a constructive role.”
Chinese experience
Experts agree that in the near future, the aggravation of Iran-Pakistan relations will calm down.
“Everything will be stopped,” assured Boris Volkhonsky, associate professor at the Institute of Asian and African Studies at Moscow State University. “Both Iran and Pakistan position these attacks not as attacks on a neighboring country, but as a fight against terrorist groups. Of course , the diplomatic consequences are inevitable, there is already a downgrade in relations. But this is the usual procedure in such situations, a temporary and reversible measure. Nobody is interested in escalation, and the terrorist threat is common to both sides,” he added. Moreover, according to the expert, Beijing, which has expressed its willingness to act as a mediator, has established ties with both Islamabad and Tehran, and this is a good help for settlement.
The leading researcher at IMEMO of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Andrey Yaslavski, also considers the Chinese intervention promising. “Given the past successes of Chinese diplomacy, such as the restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia last year, we can expect that Beijing’s calls for peace will now be heard,” he notes. Meanwhile, Tehran and Islamabad themselves are trying to reduce the degree of tension by avoiding overtly hostile steps. Both sides emphasize the fact that the problem is precisely in the border groups. Therefore, one cannot speak of an international conflict.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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